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Seoul's median apartment sold for 916m won. The average says 1.17bn. Believe the median

Realhouse's read of registered transactions shows 55.5% of Seoul apartment sales this year closed below 1 billion won, with 1,717 deals above 3 billion pulling the citywide average up.

The Investor · Invest desk

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Photograph accompanying Seoul's median apartment sold for 916m won. The average says 1.17bn. Believe the median
Photo: en.sedaily.com

What happened

  • Realhouse, a real estate data firm, analyzed transaction records from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's official price disclosure system.
  • There were 37,246 Seoul apartment sales reported between February and early August this year.
  • The median transaction price for Seoul apartments during the period was 916 million won.
  • The average sale price over the same period was 1.17 billion won.
  • The median was 258.5 million won lower than the average sale price.

Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made

Why it matters

Realhouse, a real estate data firm, pulled Seoul apartment transactions from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's official price disclosure system and found the median sale between February and early August this year closed at 916 million won, against an average of 1.17 billion won [1][2][3][4]. The 258.5 million won gap between those two numbers is the story: the average describes a market that most buyers in Seoul were never in [5].

Of the 37,246 sales in the sample, 20,676, or 55.5%, went for less than 1 billion won, roughly $722,000 [2][7]. Move the line to 1.5 billion won and 28,765 deals, 77.2% of the total, sit below it [8]. Sales at 2 billion won or more numbered 4,444, or 11.9%, and just 1,717, or 4.6%, cleared 3 billion won [9]. Realhouse attributes the entire median-to-average spread to that thin top layer [6]. Put differently, the median transaction was 78.3% of the mean [1].

The volume sits where the cheap stock is. Nowon District logged the most deals at 4,453, or 12.0%, followed by Gangseo at 2,500, Guro at 2,452 and Seongbuk at 2,245 [10]. All three of the top-volume districts had medians below the citywide 916 million won, with Nowon at 600 million [11]. Nowon, Dobong and Gangbuk together produced 6,961 deals, 18.7% of the market, exceeding the 4,752 recorded across Gangnam, Seocho and Songpa by 2,209 [12].

Gangnam managed only 1,442 sales, 3.9% of the total, at a median of 2.66 billion won, more than four times Nowon's [13]. Only three districts posted medians above 2 billion won: Gangnam, Seocho at 2.4525 billion and Yongsan at 2.06 billion, together accounting for 3,167 deals or 8.5% of volume [15]. The district spread ran to 2.12 billion won, or 4.9 times, from Gangnam's high to Dobong's 540 million won low [14]. Concentration at the top is near total: Gangnam (561), Seocho (439), Songpa (434) and Yongsan (140) accounted for 91.7% of all 3 billion won-plus deals [17], and 12 of Seoul's 25 districts recorded none at all [18]. Roughly 39% of Gangnam's own transactions were in that bracket [3], while the three Gangnam-area districts, 12.8% of volume, held 83.5% of the ultra-high-priced trades [2][4].

Volume recovery has not translated into price. Nowon's share of record-high-price deals was 2.9%, the lowest in the city, and Dobong's 3.0%, against a citywide average of 10.5%, or 3,929 deals [16].

One methodology note worth keeping. KB Kookmin Bank's July median for Seoul apartments was 1.27583 billion won, 359.83 million above the transaction-based median, because KB estimates market values across the entire housing stock rather than counting closed deals [19]. The Realhouse sample also includes 76 sub-20-square-metre units that sold for under 100 million won, about 0.2% of transactions [20][5].

What to watch: whether the record-high-price share in the outer districts moves off 3%, which would mean the mid-tier is repricing rather than just transacting; and whether the 12 districts with zero 3 billion won sales stay at zero. Anyone underwriting Seoul on the 1.17 billion won average is underwriting 4.6% of the market.

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