Drift's capped pledges would lift its DFX recovery rate to about 50 cents at most

Suppose Tether pays all 127.5 million USDT it pledged and the other partners pay their 20 million. The Recovery Pool would then hold about 150.6 million USDT against 299.5 million DFX ^[1][2]. That comes to roughly 50 cents a token, and no promised money goes past it ^[2]. The rest has to come from the net revenue of Velocity, as Drift Foundation is now called, or from funds still to be recovered from the attacker ^[1][14].

The supply has a small puzzle of its own. Drift issued one DFX per verified dollar lost ^[2], so verified losses come to about $4.1 million more than the $295.4 million drain figure ^[11].

Revenue sets the pace. Cryptopolitan does not report Velocity's daily revenue or the dates on Tether's phased schedule, so the deposit tiers are the only guide ^[7]. At 30,000 USDT of daily net revenue, the pool receives 18,000 a day, about 6.57 million a year ^[3]. At 100,000 it receives 67,000 a day, about 24.5 million a year ^[4]. Roughly 148.9 million would still be owed after every pledge landed ^[5], so full repayment takes about six years at the higher rate and about 23 at the lower ^[6]. Meanwhile Velocity keeps 12,000 USDT, or 40%, of a 30,000-USDT day, and 10% of every dollar above 100,000 ^[14][6].

The one-cent figure is a launch rate. Under the claims guide, the redemption rate never falls ^[5]. A victim who holds DFX has pushed most of the loss onto Velocity's revenue and Tether's phase schedule, and it is fixed only for victims who leave. Redeeming 100 DFX today returns about 1.04 USDT and surrenders the tokens ^[15]. That forfeiture drew complaints in May ^[11]. Selling locks in whatever the market pays ^[9]. Never claiming forfeits everything at 00:00 UTC on January 1, 2028, when unclaimed DFX is burned ^[8]. Each token is worth the pool divided by the tokens outstanding ^[3], so every burned token raises the value of those left, including any bought on Raydium ^[7][2].

Cryptopolitan put the token at about $0.03, which values all 299.5 million DFX at roughly $9 million ^[9][8]. That is close to three times the 3.11 million USDT in the pool, and about 6% of the 50 cents a token the pledges could fund ^[12][15]. A 210% gain to that level means the token started its day near $0.0097, just under redemption value ^[9]. About $200,000 of liquidity stands behind the price ^[9]. A victim who sells at three cents books a 97% loss and passes the wait to the buyer ^[13].

An early Tether phase would move the rate toward 50 cents well inside the claim window, and three cents would then look cheap ^[7][2]. Recovery from the attacker is the second route. The $9.2 million frozen after the attacker used Tornado Cash in August would add about three cents a token if it reached the pool ^[10][10]. Three of the four Ethereum wallets still hold 107,165 ETH that has not moved in months ^[12]. The slow case is revenue stuck in the bottom tier, which leaves the second half of the loss two decades away ^[6].

I'd expect DFX to trade on Tether's deposit dates more than on Velocity's revenue. Of all the money in this recovery, the pledges are the only part with a named payer and a stated size ^[7]. The counter-case is that $200,000 of liquidity is too thin to price a pledge at all ^[9]. If the first Tether phase lands and the token barely moves, the view is wrong.