S&P lifts Asia-Pacific growth forecast on AI exports it expects to peak soon

Take the 0.2 point back out and S&P's previous 2026 baseline for Asia-Pacific was 4.4% ^[1]. The 2027 forecast is the same 4.4% ^[2], so the region is expected to slow by 0.2 point next year ^[2], over the same stretch in which the agency expects tech export growth to peak ^[6]. S&P did not break the upgrade down by driver, and it did not publish its earlier 2027 figure.

The agency puts exports first. "Strong exports are a key growth driver, especially in economies benefiting from the AI-related tech export surge," S&P said ^[3]. It also said domestic demand was generally resilient outside China ^[4] and that non-technology exports should gain from continued global expansion ^[6]. So part of the case rests on demand outside tech. The 30% average export growth in the three months to July is a dollar figure for all exports ^[5].

The peak can play out in a few ways. S&P's base case has tech export growth topping out but staying robust through the next 12 months ^[6]. A lower growth rate on a higher base still means more shipments. The worse case is a change of plans at the small group of US hyperscalers that did much of the early AI spending, and S&P says the tech supply chain is vulnerable to exactly that ^[11]. The better case is that the rising share of Taiwan's and South Korea's AI-related exports going to non-US buyers ^[9] means the boom is broadening, though S&P allows that it may only reflect supply chains adjusting ^[10].

I think the base case holds for the 12 months S&P is describing, because industrial sentiment stayed resilient through August, Asia-Pacific included ^[19]. The region's resilience depends on one cycle, or rather on the budgets of the few companies that started it ^[11]. A capex cut from that group would prove this view wrong.

China's forecast of 4.3% for both years ^[12] is 0.3 point below the region's 2026 pace ^[3]. The part of its economy that is growing is trade. Tech product volumes and prices have both risen, and demand for components that are later re-exported has revived a processing sector that had been weak for an extended period ^[17].

At home the numbers run the other way. New residential sales in the first eight months of 2026 were 52% below the same period of 2020 and housing starts were 79% below ^[15]. Sales are therefore at 48% of their 2020 level and starts at 21% ^[4]. "Domestic demand is unlikely to accelerate over the next quarter at least," S&P said ^[16], citing subdued confidence and modest fiscal and housing-market stimulus.

The same AI spending also supports global growth. S&P said the AI investment boom, particularly in the US, helped global growth withstand elevated energy prices ^[7]. It also lists tighter US monetary policy among the region's risks ^[18].