Australia cut refining capacity 6.9% a year over a decade as China added 2.3% a year, Energy Institute data show. China's renewed fuel export ban now falls on importers that shut their own plants, just as two wars squeeze diesel and jet fuel supply.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
Donald Trump threatened tariffs of 150% to 300% on foreign firms that do not build US plants within about 18 months, a day after pressing Seoul on Alaska LNG. Seoul says it has only agreed to review that project, so its $350 billion pledge is still being bargained over.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
S&P Global Ratings raised its 2026 Asia-Pacific growth forecast by 0.2 point to 4.6%, crediting an AI-led tech export boom it expects to peak soon. It then has the region slowing to 4.4% in 2027, the pace it had forecast for this year before the revision.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence50
Korea's customs print for the first ten days of September puts chips at $16.5bn of $35bn in exports, up 270.1% on the year, and the implied surplus across the full twenty days runs near a third of everything the country shipped.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+36
- Incentives40
- Confidence33
Lee Jae-myung and Serdar Berdimuhamedow signed the package at the Blue House on the 15th, with an investment promotion and protection accord among the 13. Turkmenistan also endorsed Seoul's END Initiative.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives75
- Confidence55
South Korea's revised Criminal Act took effect on September 13 and drops the requirement that a leak benefit an enemy state, so conduct police logged a record 33 times last year now carries three to 30 years.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives35
- Confidence42
A single large US reactor runs about $15bn, so eight would absorb $120bn of the $200bn Korea pledged to secure lower tariffs. The framework being signed fixes two units, and an LNG plant in Encinal, Texas goes first.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption16
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives72
- Confidence42
Foreign Affairs dates the US and Israeli war on Iran to February 28. What has followed reads less like a single shock than a duty cycle at airports, refineries, desalination plants and ports.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence35
Only 517 foreign accounts on South Korean exchanges have cleared KYC. A 2021 real-name banking rule means a Korea launch is a licensing problem, not a marketing one.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence52
KIET's president says holding No. 2 in batteries, shipbuilding and renewables carries security value. CSIS says market access now turns on alliances. Both rewrite the test a Korean plant has to pass.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives66
- Confidence44
The order to "substantially reduce" US-South Korea exercises came with no meeting scheduled and no public reply from Pyongyang. That makes it a planning input, not a headline.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives68
- Confidence54
KDI lifted this year's GDP forecast to 3.2% from 2.5% and attributed almost all of it to the AI-driven chip cycle. It also cut its jobs forecast by 60,000.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+6
- Incentives40
- Confidence58
Korea's short-term external debt has passed 40% of reserves because foreigners bought won bonds after index inclusion. Where the banking system sources dollars matters more.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence41
Mortgages and borrowed money for stock buying drove a 21.1 trillion won second quarter. The bill now arrives as lending rates reprice upward.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives24
- Confidence57