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tomtunguz.com

tomtunguz.com

Evidence-bounded context

A field appears only when the current profile revision carries supporting evidence. Missing context stays visibly unknown.

Source classes
Not yet evidenced
Ownership
Not yet evidenced
Funding ties
Not yet evidenced
Declared affiliations
Not yet evidenced
Geographic base
Not yet evidenced
Methodology
Not yet evidenced

Current clusters

invest23 publishers

Nvidia's August 26 print is the only order book the AI supply chain gets

Guidance of about $91 billion carries China at zero, and roughly a third of the eight biggest cloud buyers' budget runs through one income statement.

Perspective Coverage

23 publishers
Builder
Builder 17%
Operator
Operator 22%
Investor
Investor 61%

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption70
Hype gap+35
Incentives60
Confidence58
invest36 publishers

Anthropic's alignment lead answered a safety resignation with a double-digit extinction estimate

Jacob Coxon quit Anthropic's pretraining team on September 8 saying the labs are gambling with our lives, and the company's alignment science lead replied that he puts the odds of AI killing all humans above 10 percent over ten years, with no plan yet.

Perspective Coverage

36 publishers
Builder
Builder 22%
Operator
Operator 46%
Investor
Investor 32%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption20
Hype gap+35
Incentives72
Confidence60
invest16 publishers

Anthropic puts its deepest Opus 5.5 cut on cache reads, at 20 cents a million

Opus 5.5 lists at $4 and $20 per million tokens, a fifth below Opus 5, while reused context falls 60% to $0.20, so the saving a buyer actually books depends on the shape of its own bill.

Perspective Coverage

16 publishers
Builder
Builder 29%
Operator
Operator 35%
Investor
Investor 36%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption25
Hype gap+25
Incentives70
Confidence60