Six Paid-For F-35s, One Russian Radar, And No Legal Route Between Them

More than a month after President Donald Trump said he would sell F-35s to Türkiye, the sale has not moved, Semafor reports ^[1]. What is holding it is not a negotiation but a statute: US sanctions law requires Ankara to offload its Russian-made S-400 air defense system before it can get access to the aircraft ^[2].

The sunk cost is already on the books. Six jets Türkiye paid for have remained in the United States since Ankara was expelled from the program in 2019 ^[3], which by now is roughly seven years of paid-for inventory sitting on the wrong side of a legal condition ^[4].

Two workarounds exist, and neither is progressing. The first is disabling the S-400 rather than removing it, an approach that risks a fight with lawmakers who read the statute as requiring full divestment ^[5]. The second is selling the system to the United Arab Emirates; Türkiye reportedly opened talks on that last month, but according to people familiar with the discussions they have not advanced ^[6]. One plausible reason, per Semafor, is that owning the S-400 would itself disqualify the UAE from buying F-35s ^[7]. Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., made the general point that any country that bought and deployed the S-400 would face the same restrictions Türkiye did ^[8]. A US official told Semafor a UAE purchase is still possible, saying the Emiratis have "no problem buying sh*t from the Russians," while adding that "I don't think there's been any firm decision" yet ^[9].

The congressional math is the part operators should read closely, because it does not follow the usual pattern of this term. The GOP-controlled Congress has largely given Trump what he wants, but the F-35 sale could struggle to survive a disapproval vote, partly because many Trump allies are themselves in the full-divestment camp ^[10]. Senate Foreign Relations Chair Jim Risch, R-Idaho, who has a longstanding hold on the purchase, told Semafor: "At this point, they have not removed the S-400s, so it's at a standstill" ^[11]. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., said Türkiye should not have F-35s while it has the S-400, and added that he has not "heard anything" from the administration about moving forward despite talking to it often ^[12]. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., cited separate objections: Ankara's crackdown on democracy, its occupation of Cyprus, and past intrusions into Greek airspace ^[13].

Israel is the other constraint. Hours after Trump previewed the sale at last month's NATO summit alongside President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ^[14], Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that selling Türkiye the jets could "destroy the power balance in the Middle East" ^[15]. Sinan Ciddi of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said Israel's problem is that advanced jets would empower a Turkish military already significantly larger than its own ^[16].

The queue behind Türkiye is also static. Saudi Arabia is increasing its lobbying for its own F-35 purchase, which has seen no public progress since Trump announced in November that he would pursue it ^[17]; Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman met administration officials last month ^[18]. Douglas Silliman, president of the Arab Gulf States Institute, called the Saudi sale "a years-long process" and said Israel may be concerned about the absence of normalization with Riyadh as a condition ^[19].

Watch for a firm UAE decision on buying the S-400, which is the only path that satisfies the divestment reading without a fight over statutory interpretation. Watch Risch's hold, which is the practical gate. And watch whether the administration briefs Republican skeptics at all; Scott's account suggests it has not. The UAE, Türkiye, and the White House did not comment to Semafor ^[20].