Fifty percent duties on roughly $20bn of Canadian goods began on Aug. 22 and Ottawa answers on Sept. 8, so firms with cross-border bills of materials are now pricing a political constraint instead of a negotiation.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption78
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives68
- Confidence61
The $20 billion hike and Canada's Tuesday retaliation arrive before the midterms; the 50 percent auto and steel tariff Trump promised is dated 2027, with no negotiated off-ramp in sight.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives78
- Confidence55
The tariff is live across more than 500 categories and Ottawa's answer is dated September 8. Buyers get 17 days, plus a court precedent that cuts against long contracts.
Reality
- Evidence20
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives55
- Confidence24
Options are charging for a symmetric move on Wednesday, while the named downside runs to $190. Warsh then takes the Jackson Hole stage into a bond market already selling off.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives62
- Confidence41
Greer's account leaves neither capital a price at which to re-enter. No talks are scheduled, and duties on more than $20bn of goods carry a roughly $10bn bill.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives74
- Confidence33
Graphite Ventures' Aaron Bast argues Canada should back founders first instead of copying Silicon Valley's home-run model. The arithmetic of his own fund shows how thin the pool still is.
Reality
- Evidence27
- Adoption41
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives84
- Confidence52
The Canadian parts maker's stock has outrun the TSX this year and its chair's fortune has more than doubled, because most of what Linamar sells was never tariffed in the first place.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption57
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives62
- Confidence52