A Works in Progress essay argues the Bronze Age powers never returned because iron, unlike the tin they imported, could be made anywhere, and it leaves the comparison to drones today as an open question.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives30
- Confidence48
White House staff settled the question in the 1980s by reasoning that genomes are made of chemicals, a stopgap that has outlasted every product category it captured. Biotech operators building risk models tend to leave that durability out of the calculation.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption4
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives56
- Confidence43
Works in Progress argues that landfill beats the recycling bin for much of what we discard. The evidence it supplies is mostly reuse breakeven arithmetic, and that is the half a procurement team can check.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives55
- Confidence38
Flock sells a camera for $3,000 a year against a typical $1 million department budget, which means money no longer decides adoption. The claim that it displaces pretextual stops rests on one officer's account.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives70
- Confidence40
Every worthy secondary goal bolted onto a transit system gets billed to the riders it exists to serve, and most of those riders have no car to fall back on.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives44
- Confidence52
The claim that daycare traumatises children rests on cortisol readings and speculation about the amygdala. The official claims on the other side are barely sturdier.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+52
- Incentives66
- Confidence44