Defense Logistics Agency gave Austin-based Supra a Phase I SBIR contract to test whether its process can recover scandium from industrial byproducts. For buyers who rely on imported scandium, the award pays for a first check of the chemistry, and high purity at scale is still unproven.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives65
- Confidence40
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said tariffs, gasoline and AI spending are keeping inflation up after the Fed's first rate increase since mid-2023. Planning for cuts now means betting against the persistence Barkin described.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap0
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
USA Rare Earth, Pasqal and Riven Systems say they will find better rare-earth extractants using an autonomous lab and quantum machine learning. In the plan announced September 17, the quantum processor's first job is a benchmark.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives75
- Confidence42
The Commerce Department is backing the South Carolina plant with up to $1.6 billion against a $1.2 billion build. Commissioning begins in 2028, so programs shipping before then keep the magnet supply they already have.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives78
- Confidence52
Andre Marinho says he wrote the March 19 presentation and that it was never shown to an American official. The commercial version of the same trade is already running, and USA Rare Earth closed Serra Verde for $2.8 billion in April.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives78
- Confidence40
Intel is up more than 300% since the stake talks leaked and down 37% since June, and the part of that gain still standing depends on courts and the next Congress leaving federal equity stakes alone.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption72
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence62