US crypto holders on extension must file 2025 returns by October 15 or pay a failure-to-file penalty of 5% of unpaid tax a month. The percentage applies only to tax not paid in April, so the date costs most for filers who underpaid in spring and still cannot document their cost basis.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence70
BitGo CEO Mike Belshe says the Senate's 50-49 vote that stalled the CLARITY Act lets single firms keep running an exchange, a brokerage and custody together. He thinks a failure at such a venue could be worse than Lehman, and reviving the bill means finding votes it lacked in September.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
The Senate's 49-50 procedural vote left the securities-versus-commodities test where it already was, with the SEC and CFTC free to keep writing rules under existing powers and those rules open to court challenge.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives72
- Confidence64
Last year a single senator could force the Senate to vote on Canada tariffs under the emergency powers law. Sen. Tim Kaine says the nearly century-old statute Trump used this time has no such motion.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives65
- Confidence48
A 49-50 cloture vote left the crypto market-structure bill short of the 60 needed to open debate, so the SEC/CFTC jurisdictional split it would have created stays unwritten. Roadmaps dated against it now wait on a motion that failed its first vote.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives82
- Confidence66
The procedural motion failed 49 to 50, and with only 53 Republicans in the chamber leadership needs seven votes from a Democratic caucus that supplied none. The negotiations broke down over a divestment trigger.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives68
- Confidence55
The Senate voted 50-49 against the Clarity Act on September 15, so the federal digital-asset framework stays unwritten. The fight that sank it was over ethics language tied to the president's own crypto holdings.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives78
- Confidence58
Cloture failed with 49 of the 60 votes needed. The two-agency perimeter the industry spent hundreds of millions to buy now falls to whatever the SEC and CFTC write on their own. Atkins still wants a statute.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption66
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives74
- Confidence57
The Senate left the Clarity Act 11 votes short of the 60 needed on Tuesday. Bitcoin fell 4.5%, while Coinbase and Circle, the two firms that would have gained a primary regulator, fell 10.10% and 11.4%.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives78
- Confidence54
The Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act 49-50 after a final draft absorbed 126 changes the Democratic caucus had asked for, and every Democrat and independent still voted against proceeding.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Cloture on H.R. 3633 failed 49-50 on Sept. 15 with every yes vote Republican. Add the four Republican noes back to the yes column and the count reaches 53, still seven short of the 60 the Senate requires.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
Reuters reported that Senate negotiators Thune, Cruz and Klobuchar are discussing a duty of care that would let the federal government bar release of an unsafe frontier model, leaving developers to challenge a ban in federal court.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence40
Bankman-Fried is asking the Supreme Court to treat the FTX estate's recoveries as evidence about the crime itself, an argument the Justice Department says is beside the point and one the Court almost never agrees to hear.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives85
- Confidence58
Writing in STAT, two physicians who treat the behavioral effects of brain disease say nothing in the Wall Street Journal's account of Sen. John Fetterman is medically surprising, while stating plainly that they cannot diagnose him from press clippings.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
Patrick Witt wants Democrats on the market structure bill by Sept. 15, and the fallback he describes if they refuse is rulemaking bounded by the authority the SEC and CFTC already have, an approach that depends on agency leadership the White House has not yet named.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives78
- Confidence57
More than $3.4 billion is chasing a chamber that decides who staffs the administration and who fills open court seats for the rest of the term, and the spending so far shows the two sides pricing the same seats very differently.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives68
- Confidence55
The edited release now says NASA, the Federal Reserve and the Senate were among QTFY's targets. That leaves the public record with seven named agencies and no named breach for anyone to brief a board on.
Reality
- Evidence47
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives61
- Confidence51
Banks want rewards on stablecoin balances restricted; the platforms behind USDC and USDT need them. A mid-September Senate procedural vote is the next read on who is winning.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+33
- Incentives68
- Confidence41
At a CrimeCon panel in Las Vegas, the platform's moderation found the investigator within minutes. According to Schlep, the account that asked Hansen for a Snapchat handle was still live 78 days later.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives72
- Confidence36