Judge Martha Pacold barred Illinois from enforcing its license and criminal rules against Kalshi but deferred a fee stack that takes 15% of gross receipts. The fees stay on the state's books while she hears more argument on whether a charge that size amounts to regulation.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
Thomson Reuters kept its copyright win over ROSS Intelligence on appeal, the first US appellate ruling on fair use in AI training. ROSS had been refused a Westlaw licence as a rival, so the ruling lets owners of training data set a price or decline to sell.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 19%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 43%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
Kalshi lost its Tennessee injunction at the Sixth Circuit, putting states ahead 2-1 in appeals courts over its sports contracts. New York's suit against Polymarket prices a loss at the alleged gains plus a penalty three times as large.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Sixth Circuit judges let Ohio and Tennessee enforce gambling law against Kalshi's sports contracts, putting two of three appeals courts on the states' side. New Jersey's contrary ruling still stands, so the same federally registered contract now has a different legal status depending on the state.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 50%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives45
- Confidence76
A unanimous panel decided that Kalshi's contracts on who wins a game are likely bets rather than swaps, which turns one federal registration back into a fifty-state licensing problem for the exchange.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 56%
- Investor
- Investor 31%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives50
- Confidence74
Sports contracts run above 80% of a market that went from $2bn in August 2025 to $38.5bn. Whether the justices take New Jersey's petition this fall will decide which compliance bill the industry pays.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
A PredictIt executive says the CFTC-versus-states fight could reach the Supreme Court as soon as November, with a ruling next June. That is not a glide path. It is a coin flip with a date on it.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives72
- Confidence44