The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest in 12 years. Jobs data out the same day held steady. The drop traces to fuel and prices, and those are what a spending forecast built on labour figures alone misses.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence65
Americans' confidence fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September on the Conference Board index, with more calling present business conditions bad than good. Two years of worry about the outlook now extend to how households grade today's economy and their own finances.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest reading since April 2014. Economist James Knightley says consumers keep spending anyway, so the survey and his account of spending point in opposite directions.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 34%
- Investor
- Investor 61%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence74
The Conference Board puts 35% of this year's Russell 3000 forced departures in health care. The same report has forced exits taking a smaller share of 2026 successions than in either prior year, and no single industry profile.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
Dana Peterson expects no hike next month while markets price one, and her reasoning rests on a consumer decline now reaching independents and Republicans rather than on inflation reports that will not exist by the time the committee sits.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
New modeling from the Conference Board's CEO Center converts deficits into loan payments. Most of the dollars in its case studies come from an assumed rate doubling, not the deficit path.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Nine in ten exclusion requests now draw a no-objection letter that reflects no review of the merits, and requests fell by half. The judgement moved to the general counsel's office.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence57
A new scenario model puts household numbers on the fiscal path: $53,000 in extra lifetime mortgage payments for a 2031 buyer, and a $705 monthly hole for retirees by 2033.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives62
- Confidence46
A Conference Board study of Russell 3000 and S&P 500 plans finds broad ESG labels falling while governance, social, cash flow and expense measures rise. Financial metrics still hold 70% to 75%.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives38
- Confidence62