CME plans to list two Nvidia GPU compute futures on October 5, pending regulatory approval, with prices running 36 months forward. Bitcoin miners that moved into AI hosting can hedge with them only if what they are paid moves with a GPU rental index.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives78
- Confidence45
Public miners have announced $70 billion to $100 billion of AI and HPC contracts. Spread across 12-to-15-year terms that is roughly $6 billion a year, and 550 of about 4,000 contracted megawatts are earning it today.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
The renamed GCPU tracks an index of high-performance computing firms, half of them GPU cloud operators and half converts from mining, on Grayscale's view that grid-connected capacity stays scarce for years.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives78
- Confidence42
An opinion column in DataCenterDynamics makes the case for earnouts built on utility service agreements, interconnection approvals and energization dates. Most of those triggers belong to parties outside the deal.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
Rothschild Redburn began coverage of TeraWulf at Neutral with a $15 target in August 2026. The company has 102 megawatts operating against 839 contracted, and its lease revenue runs at about 13% of what the Anthropic contract will eventually pay.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives62
- Confidence46
Its second-quarter report puts the network hashrate about 50% below trend and blames the post-halving cycle and Texas power prices alongside the AI pivot, so the 50% measures the halving and the power bill as much as it measures who is outbidding whom.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence45
With CoinShares putting the second-quarter cash cost of a bitcoin at about $75,500 against a $58,400 price, public miners are switching off rigs they own and paying cash to cancel the ones they ordered.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption71
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives63
- Confidence54
Revenue per petahash rose almost exactly in step with the coin in August, so the miners' equity gap says more about how they are funding AI build-outs than about the margin on a mined bitcoin. Luxor's forward curve offers no relief before February.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption67
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives58
- Confidence57
Dowagiac's bitcoin miners went dark on September 1 so that 20 megawatts could be leased to an unnamed California neocloud at roughly $3 million per megawatt-year. The customer's cash in the door so far is $10.6 million.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+58
- Incentives75
- Confidence38
Peter Schiff says AI bids against Bitcoin for capital, power and space. The contract arithmetic suggests that at the level of the individual site, the argument is already over.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption64
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence38
The listed cohort's realized hashrate fell 13.4 percent in six months against a 10.6 percent network decline. Two of its members now earn most of their revenue from something other than mining.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives45
- Confidence54