Astronomers led by the University of Arizona's Naman Bajaj used archival JWST data on 72 young Sun-like stars to show disk-stripping winds change with age. The survey identifies which force removes planet-building gas at each stage, but it does not yet put the giant-planet deadline in years.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives30
- Confidence55
The evidence for seeping nitrogen on Sputnik Planitia is a resemblance to wet ice in Landsat 9 images of Greenland, backed by simulations in which nitrogen ice several kilometers down melts and rises.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Lewis J. Pinault of the SETI Institute and his co-authors argue that the airless, tectonically dead moon has spent a billion years collecting and burying interstellar grains that no radio search could ever hear.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
A preprint from University College London's Lewis Pinault and colleagues argues the airless Moon has archived interstellar dust for billions of years, and puts the sample needed to test that idea at one cubic meter of regolith.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption5
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives55
- Confidence48
The experimental instrument riding alongside Roman's survey camera carries the first deformable mirrors NASA has flown, and its science teams have pre-committed to a test that tells them whether the fault is theirs.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
Naman Bajaj's MIRI survey traces disk winds from molecular to atomic as accretion fades. The sequence looks solid; the calendar that giant-planet models actually need is not in it.
Reality
- Evidence71
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence57
Analysis of 75 videographed meteorite falls puts melting and fragmentation in charge of mass loss. Breakup starts at a fifth of measured meteorite strength, which is where hazard models bend.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives38
- Confidence55
A SETI Institute team has NASA funding to test whether Raman spectroscopy works from 30 to 50 km away, roughly 250 times farther than its own best demonstration.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives62
- Confidence45