Kevin Hassett's 4% growth forecast doubles the private-sector estimate
Kevin Hassett, the White House's top economic adviser, projected baseline US growth of about 4%, roughly double the 2% private forecasters expect. A company budgeting off official figures is using a forecast that rests on AI gains he says the statistics have not yet picked up.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives65
- Confidence35
Hassett's case against another Fed hike rests on a three-month inflation window
Kevin Hassett, the White House's top economist, says three-month core inflation near 2% leaves the Fed little room to raise rates. Wednesday's August PCE release will test his window on the inflation gauge the Fed itself prefers.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives80
- Confidence50
Trump meets AI slowdown calls with the China race for the second time in a week
The president told reporters in Ireland that "whoever wins AI wins", a day after Anthropic's Dario Amodei asked the industry to slow down, and the only next step anyone in Washington has named is a meeting this week.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives72
- Confidence55
A designer of Biden's industrial policy says US investment screening now undercuts the factory push
In Foreign Affairs, the former director of Biden's National Economic Council argues Washington has an elaborate apparatus for refusing inbound capital and almost no route to approving it. The two federal measures it names are still proposals.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives76
- Confidence48
OpenAI's own economists cannot scope their jobs a year out
Chief economist Ronnie Chatterji says the brief "is changing a lot." If the lab with the best view of the roadmap writes its research plan in pencil, no hiring manager should be writing theirs in ink.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives70
- Confidence48