Sports contracts run above 80% of a market that went from $2bn in August 2025 to $38.5bn. Whether the justices take New Jersey's petition this fall will decide which compliance bill the industry pays.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
CFTC Chair Mike Selig says his agency will write crypto rules under existing law, with two prerules already filed at the White House. Decrypt's newsletter argues the agency can reach leveraged products such as perpetual futures, while spot trading still needs Congress.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence45
The Coinbase CEO says the Wall Street Journal is preparing to blame him for the CLARITY Act's Senate defeat, and he has put his own account of January on the record while the SEC and CFTC say they will write crypto's rules themselves.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives85
- Confidence45
Treasury's surprise move to at least double long-bond buybacks sold the dollar and lifted gold and bitcoin together. Bitcoin ran about 1.7 times gold's move off the June lows.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives74
- Confidence40
The SEC proposed exempt-offering caps, the CFTC threatened to write its own regime, and Trump asked for a Clarity Act he can sign. The US rulebook gets drafted either way.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence52
Regulation Crypto Assets pairs two offering exemptions with a way out of the investment-contract test. The White House lunch the next day was the political weather, not the rule.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives84
- Confidence46
A King County judge sorted Kalshi's markets into two piles: sports and politics must be geofenced by September 2, while commodities, climate, economics and finance stay live.
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption48
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives72
- Confidence74