McKinsey Global Institute's base case has about 11 million US workers leaving their occupations by 2035 because of AI and automation. The cost of that shift will be paid in training and relocation, since most of the growing jobs require a credential and cannot be done remotely.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 10%
- Operator
- Operator 62%
- Investor
- Investor 28%
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence60
Per-unit intelligence has kept getting cheaper since GPT-4 shipped in 2023, and enterprise AI bills have kept climbing anyway. Two McKinsey senior partners spent a Tuesday session on why consumption and vendor margins explain it.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
A Fortune essay by the authors of the forthcoming When Machines Act argues that the pacing fight misreads how AI reaches the economy. The survey lines it cites put the clock in enterprise data.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives62
- Confidence36
Successful new ventures reach $10 million of revenue in 31 months on the partners' numbers, down from 38, and break even on 40% less capital. The shorter clock accounts for under half of that saving.
Reality
- Evidence20
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives80
- Confidence42
Sheryl Sandberg says women with equal career motivation are opting out for lack of sponsorship and support, and the 2025 Lean In data hands managers only the part of that problem they can fix themselves.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
The three figures count firms, employment and individual workers, and the Census Bureau declared its own earlier adoption numbers incomparable after one clause in the question changed. Boards borrow such numbers to set targets.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence52
McKinsey's August 2026 survey leaves 43 points between the people who feel faster and the firms that can find the money in EBIT, and because both halves are self-reported it cannot tell you which side is failing.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives40
- Confidence45
US data centres drew about 25GW in 2024, and BloombergNEF has them at 106GW by 2035. On that arithmetic, the question for anyone planning a cluster is when the megawatts arrive, not when the GPUs ship.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives45
- Confidence47
A June SFC proposal would widen retail access to a pool McKinsey sizes at about US$100 billion. The binding constraint is reporting, liquidity and the intermediaries who must explain both.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+27
- Incentives74
- Confidence41
The McKinsey Health Institute says scaling interventions that already work is worth 19 million healthy life-years and about $3.2 trillion. The payback horizon is a lifetime, not a fiscal year.
Reality
- Evidence22
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+48
- Incentives78
- Confidence34