South Koreans sent $210.3 million abroad to buy property in the first four months of 2026, nearly 35% of 2025's five-year-high total of $590.5 million. The pace points to a record year, and a Korean tax rule that ignores foreign homes explains it at least as well as the stronger won does.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
Jeju added 603 unsold homes in the three months to July, a record backlog made up mostly of finished buildings standing empty, while the island's average presale price for new apartments still trails only Seoul's.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives35
- Confidence63
Five of Seoul's 25 districts are still short of their 2021-22 highs, which is the best argument that the city's rally has room left and also the reason a change to the mortgage ceiling would land on them first.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption66
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives58
- Confidence57
Democratic Party leader Kim Min-seok backs the overhaul's direction and wants the exemption list read broadly. The 900 million won deduction may hold; the number of owners it reaches may not.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives62
- Confidence41
Seoul home prices rose 1.09% in July, wider than June, with the steepest gains in the city's cheaper northern districts. The bid is rotating into redevelopment stories, not fading.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives38
- Confidence60
Bank household lending rose 5.4 trillion won in July against June's 7.6 trillion, and 1.3 trillion of that 2.2 trillion slowdown sat in credit loans as retail equity buying collapsed.
Reality
- Evidence61
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives34
- Confidence63