Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok warns AI agents could move household cash out of 0.1% checking into accounts paying up to 5%, in near-unison. Banks lend that cash out assuming it stays put, and losing it would take away the cheap base that makes their lending profitable.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence35
Three federal agencies moved on crypto rules within 48 hours of the Senate's 49-50 vote that stalled the Clarity Act. Only the stablecoin rules sit on a statute, so businesses using the SEC and CFTC relief hold permissions a later administration can withdraw.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 17%
- Operator
- Operator 36%
- Investor
- Investor 47%
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
Senators killed crypto's Clarity Act on September 15 when a procedural vote fell short of the 60 votes it needed. Any product that rests only on current agency posture now needs a costed fallback in next year's compliance budget.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence40
A September 15 cloture vote needs 60 votes, and only 14 working days remain before the October recess. The SEC is drafting a token exemption in the meantime.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 15%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 47%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
The CFTC chair has told staff to draft leveraged trading and DeFi rules under existing authority. A framework built by an agency is one a future agency can unbuild.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 21%
- Operator
- Operator 42%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives68
- Confidence70
Coinbase, Robinhood and Gemini already run tokenized stock trading abroad. The SEC's conditions on holder rights and issuer objection now tell them what a US version has to do, for the next five years.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives62
- Confidence48
Jessica Wachter asked how fast hyperscaler earnings must grow to justify nearly $1.1 trillion of spending through 2027. Her answer is a 2.7x productivity gain by 2030. Anyone forecasting an AI budget now has a number to test.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives25
- Confidence58
The prior SEC brought 95 recordkeeping actions carrying $2.3 billion in penalties, roughly $24 million apiece, while FINRA's 2026 oversight report keeps finding the same retention and supervision gaps through exams that produce no published number.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives68
- Confidence41
No AI-specific rule governs advisors, but Regulation S-P and the books-and-records rule already do. ACA Group's survey says most firms have no policy for what vendors do with client data.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives68
- Confidence46
The SEC proposed exempt-offering caps, the CFTC threatened to write its own regime, and Trump asked for a Clarity Act he can sign. The US rulebook gets drafted either way.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence52
Nearly 40 action items, most designated deregulatory, and a majority that were absent from last year's list. Compliance calendars and capital-formation routes are both about to move.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence52