The bank's researchers say the scores Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac generate inside automated underwriting predict 90-plus-day delinquency at 24 months better than the measures pulled at application. Investors mostly see them in securities disclosures.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
Wolf Richter counts 34 bigger markets where mid-tier condo prices sit 15% to 34% below peaks mostly set in mid-2022, and six that are back under their 2006 highs. In San Francisco, houses are re-exploding while condos stay 7% under peak.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
William Pulte directed Fannie Mae to copy Freddie Mac and let servicers phone borrowers whose homes have appreciated. KBW's Bose George expects modest uptake and says the released capital goes to buybacks.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase are sponsoring home-equity securitizations filled partly with loans from nonbank channels. The capital rule that makes those deals attractive to a bank is not final. Nonbank sponsors are left competing on cost per deal.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence56
Jay Hawkinson, writing for the Forbes Tech Council, says his pre-deal AI governance reviews keep turning up models with no named decision owner, and he puts figures on what changed once companies assigned one.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives75
- Confidence60
A 6.71% mortgage sits 1.97 points above the 10-year Treasury, the same gap as before January's buyback fanfare, which means a 6% handle now needs a 4.03% ten-year that the market has not offered since mid-2023.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives35
- Confidence55
The final rule's treatment of private mortgage insurance sets the risk weight on a segment that is 40% of purchase originations. The relief case compares net severity against gross.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives82
- Confidence38
A closed-end fund distributed $1.74bn over eight fiscal years while earning about a third of it, covering the gap by issuing shares above NAV. The premium is now a discount.
Publishers:thebearcave.substack.com
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives82
- Confidence52
Mid-tier condo prices are down 15% to 33% from peak in 33 bigger US markets, and in six the index is back under 2006. That is a collateral question, not a housing headline.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives42
- Confidence45
The 30-year fixed rate slipped two basis points to 6.65%, its second straight weekly decline. It is still seven basis points above where it sat a year ago.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives55
- Confidence38