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Political risk consultancy that analyzes geopolitical and energy-market developments, including Middle East and Latin American oil and sanctions dynamics.
Crude had a reserve to tap and refined product does not, which is why taking roughly 3% of global diesel supply out of the market has pushed the US pump average to an all-time high with the squeeze still building.
Reality
Caracas puts the bill above $100 billion for reserves the White House says more than double America's, a stock claim with no schedule attached while the only new barrels come from Chevron tuning old wells.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishersReality
Brent at $92 reads as a supply story, but the harder move is a 30-year Treasury at 5.278%, and what sits between them is a peace deal Washington keeps declining and 65 billion Venezuelan barrels it wants to own.
Reality
Goldman puts regional export flow at 15 to 16 million barrels a day, so the defended Omani corridor is carrying roughly two-thirds of it. That is what an eroding chokepoint premium looks like in volumes rather than in quotes.
Reality
Section 338 covers a twentieth of Canadian imports, the Supreme Court has already voided one tariff authority, and Saskatchewan holds a third of world potash. The duty travels downstream.
Reality
Washington's 50% duty on about $20 billion of Canadian goods is already live, and Ottawa's dollar-for-dollar answer starts Sept. 8. Neither side has scheduled a talk.
Reality
Dominic Barton says the diplomats who used to telegraph trade shocks have been replaced by social media posts, and that companies should be re-planning debt, data and incorporation around it.
Reality
Iran wants a per-barrel fee for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and the three main scenarios on offer all end with someone paying. Freight models built on mean reversion are the exposure.
Reality