Researchers writing in Earth's Future found that extreme March-May heat in the Amazon follows El Niño and tropical Atlantic warmth by up to seven months. That could give fire and water managers months of notice, based on a statistical record spanning 74 years.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence55
Max Planck researchers argue in Earth's Future that most votes cast in the 12-to-4 rejection of an Anthropocene epoch were invalid under IUGS rules. They ask the geology union to publish the records behind the decision and open the process to an independent review.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence55
A study in Earth's Future sorts proposed outdoor solar geoengineering experiments into stages of tightening regulatory scrutiny, with the biggest one releasing a tiny fraction of a year of deployment.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives66
- Confidence54
Mapping Arctic buildings by height rather than footprint lifts the projected mid-century rebuilding bill from $110 billion to $261 billion, a correction that could only run upward once floors entered the exposure model.
Reality
- Evidence57
- Adoption16
- Hype gap+17
- Incentives62
- Confidence54
A study in Earth's Future overlaid American landslide susceptibility with local socioeconomics for the first time. Where the maps are reddest, the households underneath them have the least money to engineer a slope or leave it.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives38
- Confidence58
New work in Earth's Future turns multi-region drought into the one wheat price input a buyer can count rather than argue about.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives58
- Confidence49