DraftKings scored customers on how much they were likely to lose after a promotion, the New York Times reported after interviewing over 40 former staff. A ProPublica reporter betting his own money saw the offers grow as his losses did.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives45
- Confidence50
Terry Duffy mocked Kalshi's hot dog contract; Luana Lopes Lara asked about CME's manipulation record. The live question is whether event contracts get exchange-grade oversight, and who writes it.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 17%
- Operator
- Operator 48%
- Investor
- Investor 35%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives72
- Confidence66
A unanimous panel decided that Kalshi's contracts on who wins a game are likely bets rather than swaps, which turns one federal registration back into a fifty-state licensing problem for the exchange.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 56%
- Investor
- Investor 31%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives50
- Confidence74
Sports contracts run above 80% of a market that went from $2bn in August 2025 to $38.5bn. Whether the justices take New Jersey's petition this fall will decide which compliance bill the industry pays.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
Fullstory says 35% of bettors it polled use sportsbooks less because of prediction markets, CFTC-regulated venues that pay no state betting tax. DraftKings and FanDuel grew on a similar carve-out until states rewrote gambling law after 2015, and Kalshi's Illinois suit now contests that route.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives50
- Confidence45
The New York Times, citing more than 40 former employees, says a 2023 elasticity model scored customers on how strongly they responded to promotions, and that three internal crisis-prediction efforts stalled.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives68
- Confidence45
A House committee has voted to let gamblers deduct all of their losses again, retroactive to tax years beginning after December 31, 2025, so the cap written into July's tax law would never touch a filed return.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives75
- Confidence45
A New York Times investigation says the company's elasticity score sorted customers by predicted post-promotion losses and aimed hundreds of millions of promotional dollars at the top of that list. A harm-detection model on the same data pipeline was shelved.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption80
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives72
- Confidence58
Event contracts brought in $156m last quarter on 13.6 billion tickets, which is the arithmetic behind Robinhood buying equity in a contract supplier as well as listing its markets. OG.com's contracts go live on September 8.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives72
- Confidence48
Tim Arrowsmith bought $500,000 of protection on a state rule fix that no insurer would quote. What the price implies, and what the trigger date does not cover, matter more than the anecdote.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption16
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives82
- Confidence41
DraftKings stock is down 44%, and Fortune reports the board cleared up to $30 million of marketing work for a cofounder's new firm. The paper trail is the problem.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives78
- Confidence60
Two academic papers put figures on where wager money comes from: net household investment down nearly 14% after legalisation, and credit stress showing up in the lending data.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption82
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives66
- Confidence54
Home Depot, Target and Walmart report on consecutive mornings into a thin data calendar. Their guidance, not the macro releases, is where tariff pass-through shows up first.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence55