Crypto's 635-page Clarity Act stalled in the Senate with no realistic path back before year-end, Cato's Ryan Chan-Wei wrote. He blames an ethics dispute over conflicts at the highest levels of government, and that dispute will meet whatever bill the next Congress writes.
Perspective Coverage
18 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 17%
- Operator
- Operator 39%
- Investor
- Investor 44%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence65
SEC staff said on September 25 that token buybacks on functioning networks and staking receipts that only record ownership do not create investment contracts. Because they are staff views, live networks can plan repurchases around them while a future SEC or a private plaintiff could still contest them.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives50
- Confidence70
Kristin Smith becomes the Blockchain Association's interim CEO on October 17 and keeps her job as president of the Solana Policy Institute. The industry-wide group will share its chief executive with one chain's lobby while the Clarity Act sits stalled in the Senate.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 45%
- Investor
- Investor 42%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence70
A bill that began as a security-or-commodity question now includes a standby power over stablecoin rewards if community banks start losing deposits. The Treasury secretary decides when it fires.
Perspective Coverage
12 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 27%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 38%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives75
- Confidence62
Senator John Curtis wants the Judiciary Committee to compel testimony from Donald Trump Jr. and Hunter Biden over their family business dealings. Durbin backed the request, though a subpoena still needs Grassley.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
The Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act 49-50 after a final draft absorbed 126 changes the Democratic caucus had asked for, and every Democrat and independent still voted against proceeding.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Cloture on H.R. 3633 failed 49-50 on Sept. 15 with every yes vote Republican. Add the four Republican noes back to the yes column and the count reaches 53, still seven short of the 60 the Senate requires.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act lost 49-50 on September 15. Coinbase fell 12% and Circle 13% the same day, at the end of an election-cycle lobbying effort cryptobriefing estimates at $100m to $225m.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives68
- Confidence32
Polymarket took the Clarity Act from about 14% to nearly 30% and back to 18%, and bitcoin's $79,586 high on September 14 unwound below $78,000 by the next morning. The down leg values full passage near 14%.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Senate Republicans put out a revised 635-page crypto bill, Polymarket's odds of 2026 passage roughly doubled to 30%, and Coinbase rose 8% on Monday. That move implies a number for what traders think the statute is worth.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives68
- Confidence38
Chairman Michael Selig has told staff to work out what existing authority can carry. His innovation committee's first meeting produced no rule text and one candid caveat about enforcement.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption14
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives74
- Confidence44
Roman Storm says the theory that convicted him would also reach Google and OpenAI. It is a post, not a brief, and the count he was convicted on is the one his analogy fits worst.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives78
- Confidence38