Autonomous vehicle safety cases rest on crash comparisons with human drivers, but exclusive OSHA data reported by TechCrunch carries a second injury count: the sprains and whiplash logged by the test drivers training the cars.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives62
- Confidence48
Tesla's new first responder guidance makes a company employee on a support line part of the emergency scene. A former fire chief says the extra steps land on an officer who is still working out what happened.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives48
- Confidence58
Rajat Gupta of JPMorgan gives the customer-supplied Tesla Network $5 billion of his $320 billion 2035 robotaxi forecast, and the other $314 billion rides on cars Tesla buys with its own capital. Waymo runs the same structure.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption37
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives64
- Confidence44
A special order dated September 10 puts 21 questions to Tesla about how it decided which federal safety standards apply to a car with no steering wheel or pedals. An incomplete answer can cost about $139 million.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives58
- Confidence55
JPMorgan lifted its Tesla price target from $145 to $475 while moving the stock only to neutral. Its $320 billion robotaxi projection for 2035 runs almost entirely through cars Tesla builds and owns itself.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption41
- Hype gap+46
- Incentives62
- Confidence30
ARK Invest counts Tesla's unsupervised robotaxi mileage at 1 million, up from 380,000 six weeks earlier, and puts the Cybercab's Austin fare about half of Uber's, a price whoever owns the car has to clear.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption31
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives72
- Confidence54
Alphabet's robotaxi arm spent years letting its trip counts do the talking. Last week it published a technical case that camera-only, end-to-end driving is not safe enough, timed a week ahead of a two-seater with no steering wheel.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives85
- Confidence52
The blog post and Axios interview landed a week before Tesla's Cybercab event, and the same Tuesday morning Waymo added three markets, putting deployment scale behind an argument written for regulators.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives84
- Confidence47
A steering-wheel-free Cybercab rolling empty through Austin is an argument about build cost rather than mileage, since the 380,000 unsupervised miles Tesla claims sit at under 2% of Waymo's logged total.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption26
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives62
- Confidence30
Waymo's software VP never names Tesla in his 200-million-mile post, but it arrives as the Cybercab does, and New Jersey is already weighing a bill that would write sensor redundancy into the law deciding who can operate.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives80
- Confidence55
A 15-cent-per-mile fee earmarked for transit and displaced workers is not a permit condition. It is a price, and the DC Council has shown it can set one.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives58
- Confidence50
Robotaxi Tracker says every Austin ride it logged over two weeks ran unsupervised, seven months after Musk said the monitors were gone. The instrument is one person's crowdsourced site.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 27%
- Operator
- Operator 46%
- Investor
- Investor 27%
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives68
- Confidence58
The Transportation Authority's interim order caps the Strip fleet at 10, bars airport pick-ups and requires human supervision. Zoox's three million logged miles set the template.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+46
- Incentives66
- Confidence57