CME plans to list two Nvidia GPU compute futures on October 5, pending regulatory approval, with prices running 36 months forward. Bitcoin miners that moved into AI hosting can hedge with them only if what they are paid moves with a GPU rental index.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives78
- Confidence45
Public miners have announced $70 billion to $100 billion of AI and HPC contracts. Spread across 12-to-15-year terms that is roughly $6 billion a year, and 550 of about 4,000 contracted megawatts are earning it today.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
The renamed GCPU tracks an index of high-performance computing firms, half of them GPU cloud operators and half converts from mining, on Grayscale's view that grid-connected capacity stays scarce for years.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives78
- Confidence42
Global data center electricity use goes from about 415 TWh in 2024 to roughly 945 TWh in 2030 on the agency's April 2025 projection, and the transmission and generation to serve it take five to ten years against a data center's 18 to 24 months.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
CoinShares marks stabilised data centre capacity at $27m a megawatt and energised mining capacity at $3m, and the conversion cost in between explains why Core Scientific, Keel, Cipher and IREN are walking away from hashrate.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
Blockfusion turned a decommissioned power plant into a cryptomining campus, and its subsidiary has now signed CoreWeave to a definitive 15-year lease. The megawatt and revenue figures still date from June.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives76
- Confidence44
Its second-quarter report puts the network hashrate about 50% below trend and blames the post-halving cycle and Texas power prices alongside the AI pivot, so the 50% measures the halving and the power bill as much as it measures who is outbidding whom.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence45
With CoinShares putting the second-quarter cash cost of a bitcoin at about $75,500 against a $58,400 price, public miners are switching off rigs they own and paying cash to cancel the ones they ordered.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption71
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives63
- Confidence54
Revenue per petahash rose almost exactly in step with the coin in August, so the miners' equity gap says more about how they are funding AI build-outs than about the margin on a mined bitcoin. Luxor's forward curve offers no relief before February.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption67
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives58
- Confidence57
Dowagiac's bitcoin miners went dark on September 1 so that 20 megawatts could be leased to an unnamed California neocloud at roughly $3 million per megawatt-year. The customer's cash in the door so far is $10.6 million.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+58
- Incentives75
- Confidence38
Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund went from $5.52bn at the end of 2025 to $13.67bn in ex-miners and power by March, against roughly $7.46bn of puts on semiconductors, which prices interconnect queues above silicon.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives58
- Confidence34
Peter Schiff says AI bids against Bitcoin for capital, power and space. The contract arithmetic suggests that at the level of the individual site, the argument is already over.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption64
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence38
The Journal's reconstruction shows the fund shopping its Anthropic stake and its leveraged book at the same time, and telling only one set of buyers. That is a pricing problem for every AI secondary.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives66
- Confidence54
The listed cohort's realized hashrate fell 13.4 percent in six months against a 10.6 percent network decline. Two of its members now earn most of their revenue from something other than mining.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives45
- Confidence54