Lumentum says its AI data-centre optical parts are sold out until roughly 2029, with about 70% of demand for some products going unmet in 2027. Customers are paying toward the expansion, but Bloomberg reports that new optical capacity takes three to five years to build.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption75
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
PicoJool, the Gelsinger-backed optics startup, raised a $27.5 million Series A to get its VCSEL links for AI data centers qualified with customers. For operators, that means a new low-power option to put through trials, with volume supply still at the planning stage.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
The book grew from about $7bn in a year, and roughly half of it is priced by funding rounds rather than by markets, which means a demand forecast built on customer orders is partly a forecast of Nvidia's own marks.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption76
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives72
- Confidence64
China supplies close to 30% of some transformer and switchgear categories and more than 40% of US battery imports, so the Energy Department's new power to condition those purchases lands on a buildout planning to go from 62 GW to 152 GW.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption42
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives68
- Confidence52
Net buying of SOXL and the SK hynix ADR nearly equalled all Korean purchases of US stocks in July. Thirteen days into August, both names sit outside the top 20.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives38
- Confidence57