Sergey Brin has given $102 million to defeat California's Prop 40, a one-time 5% billionaire tax that could cost him about $13 billion. The state's $100 billion estimate depends as much on how many of its 200 billionaires stay resident as on the November vote.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives78
- Confidence60
A letter from six Nobel economists asks Californians to treat Proposition 40 as the start of a movement other states, Washington and other countries copy. The vote is in November, and the state's own pollster has supporters behind.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives82
- Confidence56
Two law firms hired by different tiers of SEIU examined Dave Regan's conduct. One corroborated an account that he pressed the state council to endorse his retroactive 5% wealth tax under threat of a federal labor investigation.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives90
- Confidence55
California's one-time 5% billionaire asset tax is ahead but under 50% with 11% undecided. The poll's own director says that is a red flag. It is also not a reason to stop planning.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives62
- Confidence63
Fortune reports that 19 of Florida's 20 richest billionaires live in Miami-Dade County. The bootstrapped Miami Beach office project chasing that money asks rents worth 28.5% of its stated $100 million cost every year.
Reality
- Evidence36
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+33
- Incentives80
- Confidence57
The San Francisco Democratic Party broke with its state party 17-4 to oppose Prop 40, but the six billionaires who have already ended their California residency are the only votes on this measure that are already counted.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives86
- Confidence46
Mark Cuban and Ro Khanna spent a weekend arguing on X about California's Proposition 40. The operative question for founders is where the cash comes from.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives85
- Confidence62