Donald Trump opens a 32-day midterm campaign in Texas and Oklahoma as AP-NORC puts approval of his handling of the economy at a record-low 26%. He is spending his first days on ground his party once held easily, so investors should treat a change in control of Congress on Nov. 3 as a live outcome.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives75
- Confidence60
New York's one-year moratorium, Pennsylvania's local-approval requirement and Arizona's tax-break pause all came from officials who once competed for these projects. Siting is now a political question.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
Florida's Republican gubernatorial nominee ran on ratepayer costs while taking AI PAC money. The NRSC calls data centers a midterm "sleeper issue." Cost allocation is now a schedule risk.
Reality
- Evidence54
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+21
- Incentives74
- Confidence56
Republicans who cheered the AI buildout are running on "guardrails" and tax-break repeal. For anyone underwriting capex against state abatements, the discount rate just moved.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives68
- Confidence48
James Uthmeier acted under a judge's order, offered no praise for Ron DeSantis's property tax measure, and pre-announced what he would do if voters reject it.
Reality
- Evidence56
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives72
- Confidence54