More than 70% of new Ebola cases in Congo arise outside known contact lists, Africa CDC chief Jean Kaseya told the AP. With 23% of expected contacts traced, Congo's count of more than 8,500 Bundibugyo cases covers only what surveillance can still reach.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap−20
- Incentives30
- Confidence50
Bundibugyo Ebola had reached 7,890 cases in the DRC by 23 September, with about 3,799 deaths, a death rate near 48%. ALIMA intensive-care physician Richard Kojan describes treating it without a licensed vaccine or cure, and why patients often reach care late.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap0
- Incentives35
- Confidence55
Kenya confirmed its first Ebola case and death in a man who flew into Nairobi from Kampala, the fourth country reached by an outbreak that began in Congo. Detection came only at the hospital in Nairobi, after he had already completed the trip.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 83%
- Investor
- Investor 8%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+3
- Incentives15
- Confidence76
Congo's Health Ministry counts 4,018 deaths among 8,300 confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases, a strain with no known treatment or vaccine. Weekly confirmed cases have fallen since July, though Africa CDC cautions that insecurity and poor community cooperation could account for the decline.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives20
- Confidence62
For anyone with staff, suppliers or travel in the region, the useful planning number is the growth rate and the spread of health zones rather than the confirmed case total, and both point to a disruption measured in quarters.
Reality
- Evidence71
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives38
- Confidence58
Bundibugyo virus has caused 5,021 cases and 2,378 deaths through August 16, reaching 1,000 cases in 40 days against 235 in 2018. The licensed Ebola vaccine was built for a different virus.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption46
- Hype gap−8
- Incentives34
- Confidence63