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Brookings Papers on Economic Activity

Economics journal published by the Brookings Institution, with papers presented at its semiannual conferences.

Current clusters

invest1 publisher

Columbia economist sets a $3.7 trillion annual revenue bar for the $10.3 trillion US AI buildout

Columbia's Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh estimates the US AI build at $10.3 trillion through 2032, needing $3.7 trillion a year in revenue to pay off. The bar is 37 times the roughly $100 billion OpenAI and Anthropic book today, a gap the model gives about seven years to close.

Publishers:cryptobriefing.com

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption: Insufficient
Hype gap+10
Incentives: Insufficient
Confidence40

invest1 publisher

Brookings paper warns financing for a $10.3 trillion AI buildout is moving off balance sheets

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh's Brookings paper projects $10.3 trillion in US AI investment through 2032, 3.63% of GDP a year against the railroads' 2.24%. It warns that more of the money is moving into off-balance-sheet vehicles that can hide correlated exposures before a downturn.

Publishers:cryptopolitan.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption: Insufficient
Hype gap+10
Incentives35
Confidence40