BNY is in talks with Kraken parent Payward, valued at $21 billion when Nasdaq invested, over a custody, trading and payments partnership, CoinDesk reported. Nothing is signed. One source compares the talks to the infrastructure half of Payward's Nasdaq agreement.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 24%
- Operator
- Operator 40%
- Investor
- Investor 36%
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence50
Coinbase won CFTC registration for its own clearinghouse on September 28, ten months after applying, covering only fully collateralized contracts. Its margined book and planned stock perpetuals still clear through partners, so the leveraged trading that dominates crypto volume stays outside.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 23%
- Operator
- Operator 39%
- Investor
- Investor 38%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence75
OG.com Markets asked the CFTC to approve cash-settled perpetual futures on single US stocks, trading 24 hours a day on weekdays at a 15.05% minimum margin. At about 6 times leverage they would sell the trade margin accounts now offer, so brokers will pick the winning venue.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption5
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives60
- Confidence60
Selected Hyperliquid perpetuals would trade inside a CFTC-regulated venue Payward bought for as much as $550 million, which is about 14% of one day of Hyperliquid volume. The contract list is the product.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 11%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 51%
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
The cheque is small enough to read as a partnership fee, and it arrives with a surveillance contract, a 2027 token launch date, and a quarter in which Payward's adjusted EBITDA fell to $23m on $508m of revenue.
Perspective Coverage
8 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 14%
- Operator
- Operator 42%
- Investor
- Investor 44%
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives72
- Confidence62
Both venues want cash-settled contracts on the largest US listings, with funding payments in place of an expiry date, and because the underlyings are securities the products need the SEC as well as the CFTC.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 20%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 42%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption3
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence64
Payward's Bitnomial filing answers the market-structure question the CFTC already knows how to answer. The open item is the screening of a permissionless order book, and no answer to that question exists yet.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
Four deals in sixteen months put Payward into regulated futures, retail FX, listed derivatives and stablecoin payment rails. The competitive set is no longer spot crypto venues.
Reality
- Evidence33
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives68
- Confidence40