Task Force Legio hands course design to the people it teaches, and drops the two subjects where the students know more. What came back the other way was a capability gap.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
Brigadier Atle Molde runs the camp he calls Norway's most important information sensor on modern war, and his working rule is that an adaptation is worth copying only once you know whether it came from insight or from scarcity.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap0
- Incentives40
- Confidence60
Norwegian instructors say Ukrainian troops improvise better than partner armies manage, and that some of those same troops need remedial rifle work. Both are outputs of a training system, not traits.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives55
- Confidence50
The officers running Norway's Ukrainian training pipeline say Western peacetime procurement cannot hold a wartime tempo. Their evidence is a camp cleared out of Polish forest in months and a drone update that takes six.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives72
- Confidence55
A Norway-led program in Poland teaches what Ukraine asks for and drops what Ukraine already does better. Drone courses and electronic warfare are off the list.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence55