company
Data provider cited for prediction-market volume across 12 platforms, including $9.50 billion on August 16.
No evidence-backed relationships are recorded.
Whales sent about $30 billion of stablecoins into crypto markets in September, yet Binance's reserves ended $1.8 billion below their September 8 peak. Much of it looks like trading collateral bound for derivatives venues while retail use shrinks.
Reality
Kalshi took $15.8 billion of the $20.4 billion prediction markets traded last week, per Artemis, the first week above $20 billion. It books each contract at its $1 payout, so the record counts payouts written, well above the cash traders put at risk.
Reality
A former quant put $538.6m of 24-hour volume beside $3.1m of open interest on Kalshi's ether perpetual and called it proof of wash trading. Kalshi's crypto lead answered that the dollar sign means notional payout.
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Artemis put Kalshi at 96% of non-sports prediction-market volume in the week to Sept. 13, up from roughly half in early June. The contracts its brokerage partners lead with settle inside sixty minutes.
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Artemis put outstanding loans on Coinbase's Layer 2 at a record $2.75bn on September 10, and roughly $1.92bn of that sits in Morpho vaults reachable through Coinbase's own borrowing screen at advertised rates from 5%.
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trade.xyz has put fully collateralized outcome contracts on a Hyperliquid book that has traded more than $460bn since January, and its own deployer fee sits at zero while it learns whether perp traders want to price events.
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Open interest reached $14.669bn while builder-deployed HIP-3 markets shrank by about $200m, so core perps added roughly $4bn in a month, and core routes about 99 per cent of its fees into HYPE buybacks.
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The sector's own figures put genuine stablecoin payments near $390 billion a year against $208 trillion of cross-border flow, and the ceiling on that ratio sits in bank licensing and local rails rather than in the chains.
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A16z crypto traces the demand back to a 2002 deposit decree and a $200 monthly purchase cap, which means the product Argentines buy on these apps is dollar access, and access now costs about 4% more than the bank's.
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Connecticut wants Hartford and its own consumer protection statute; Kalshi wants the Commodity Exchange Act, and it removed the case within hours. One district judge has already rejected the preemption argument.
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Two records on the same August 19 session, eleven weeks after perps launched. Only one of them says anything about what traders were willing to hold overnight.
Reality
A CFTC-designated exchange wants a federal judge to rule its sports contracts are swaps. The answer decides which states a venue class clearing $9.5 billion a day can legally serve.
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