FCC's Covered List has restricted new imports of humanoid and four-legged robots since July, in a market where Chinese firms ship 80 to 97% of humanoids. The cost to US builders turns on whether the list grows to cover the Chinese actuators and magnets they still buy.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives35
- Confidence35
The one humanoid deployment with published duty numbers did a single station's worth of work, while Chinese makers supplied more than four in five installations worldwide in 2025. Both facts shape a pilot decision.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence42
Humanoid locomotion is rehearsed and it films well. The manipulation figure in the published record is 85% success on five tasks with 25 objects. A household or warehouse pilot has to clear that bar on its own objects.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives54
- Confidence55
The floor on Figure's compute commitment is about twice all the equity it has disclosed raising, and the vendor writing that contract now owns a piece of the customer owing it. Whether the $3.5bn is take-or-pay is undisclosed.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives86
- Confidence62
Xpeng's robotics unit took in more than $900 million at a $6.3 billion post-money valuation, one of eight Chinese carmakers now building humanoids, while the nearest thing to a dated job on a real factory floor belongs to Hyundai.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption21
- Hype gap+44
- Incentives68
- Confidence48
The July 28 Covered List addition blocks new authorizations for foreign-made robots. The cost multiplier now being quoted comes from an index that had not yet been published.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives74
- Confidence41
Robo Inc. launched 13 days after covered foreign robots lost their path to equipment authorization. Long Island production is scheduled for January 2027.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives68
- Confidence41
542,000 industrial arms went in during 2024 and 4.66 million are already running. The near-term case for flexible factories runs through smarter conventional robots.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption74
- Hype gap−12
- Incentives42
- Confidence52