IMF raised its 2026 UK growth forecast to 1.3% from 1%, and trimmed 2027 to 1.2% from 1.3%. Its 2027 inflation forecast moved further, to 2.8% from 2.4%, and the IFS says inflation will erode departmental budgets before the 28 October Budget.
Perspective Coverage
9 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 14%
- Operator
- Operator 28%
- Investor
- Investor 58%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence75
Skills minister Jacqui Smith says the £25bn employer tax rise is not the main driver of youth unemployment, now at 16.4%. Her offer to employers is £2,000 per young apprentice at small firms, with the payroll tax on 21- to 24-year-olds left as it is.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives75
- Confidence50
Shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith wants Natural England and the Environment Agency abolished in a package the Tories say cuts up to £50,000 off a new home. Until an election, firms still plan against the government's rules and its 28 October Budget.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 53%
- Investor
- Investor 35%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Andrew Griffith said a Tory government would aim to scrap at least one tax every budget and would abolish the £2m-plus mansion tax due in 2028. The specific taxes he named, including a packaging scheme that firms pay for, are firmer promises than the per-budget goal, which he made conditional on affordability.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
Tory shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith will pledge to scrap the Environment Agency and Natural England and replace two developer obligations with one levy. With the party polling third, the pledges bind no one yet but name the rules a Conservative government would remove.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives70
- Confidence50