A preprint says meltwater pulses are bending the jet stream toward western European heatwaves. It offers no size for the resulting model error, and another group disputes the cause.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+46
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence32
A Nature Climate Change study finds the same warming that leaves Atlantic currents intact near 5.5C if reached slowly can tip them at 2C at today's emissions rate.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+26
- Incentives42
- Confidence52
New work in Nature Geoscience finds past Atlantic slowdowns raised the heat stored by the global ocean, an effect the authors size at about 25 ppm of carbon dioxide.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives58
- Confidence44
A Nature Geoscience paper puts the Labrador Sea's oxygen export at more than 27 teramoles a year, enough to cover respiration across the deep North Atlantic. AMOC strength alone will not track it.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption28
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence58
Cores off northeastern Brazil date two intensifications of Atlantic overturning during a period when the circulation was mostly far weaker than today. One lasted about a century.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives42
- Confidence57