Most buy now/pay later loans never reach the credit bureaus, even as the Federal Reserve counts 16% of consumers using them in 2025. Use runs heaviest among borrowers with the least savings, so the debt banks cannot see sits with the applicants least able to carry it.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives30
- Confidence55
Four in 10 young respondents did not classify buy now, pay later as debt, and those who reported receiving financial education were less likely than others to call it debt. The survey leaves the order of the two open.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives58
- Confidence55
Nearly one in three Americans has financed groceries with buy now, pay later, close to double the share of two years ago. A forthcoming WashU model of retailer profit finds the merchant fee comes back as a higher shelf price for everyone.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives40
- Confidence45
Affirm's eleventh straight quarter above 30% growth was also its most profitable. The $64bn floor guided for fiscal 2027 implies at most 28% growth, and that gap is where the card-displacement argument gets tested.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives68
- Confidence72
Block has published the first hard distribution of AI adoption inside a large engineering org: one agent for most, three to five for the next cohort, and a small team building the orchestrator.
Publishers:engineering.block.xyz
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption71
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives73
- Confidence52
A forthcoming Management Science paper models pay-later as a liquidity lever rather than a payments feature, and finds it moves list prices and stocking levels for every buyer.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption61
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives62
- Confidence44
Transaction margin grew 15 points faster than revenue in Q2 2026. For lenders and acquirers, that spread is the benchmark, not headline volume.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption84
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives62
- Confidence70