Topic

Quantum cryptanalysis

The prospect of quantum computers breaking public-key cryptography such as RSA, and the estimates of hardware capability required to do it.

Current clusters

science2 publishers

Sandia scores the best quantum hardware 137,000 times short of breaking RSA-2048

The Sandia-led QUOPS benchmark rates a quantum computer by the largest useful circuit it can finish and how fast it finishes it. Across Google, IBM and Quantinuum machines the best score was 1,824, against a chemistry target of 250 million.

Publishers:newscientist.comphys.org

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption25
Hype gap+8
Incentives48
Confidence66