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XRP's lowest Binance scarcity reading since January 2025 is measured against a shrunken reserve
CryptoQuant's scarcity index for XRP on Binance has fallen to its lowest since January 2025, with the token trading around $1.10 to $1.13. The index is scored against a shrinking baseline, so it shows that supply is returning more clearly than it shows how much.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- By late June the index had dropped to about 0.34 as supply flowed back onto Binance.
- A rebound to roughly 0.77 in early July proved short-lived before the latest slide.
- Prediction-market pricing cited by Crypto Briefing shows falling odds that XRP sets an all-time high by the end of 2026.
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Why it matters
- exposure At the recent price, Binance's XRP stockpile is about $2.9 billion of token available for immediate sale, the float buyers must absorb for the $1.10 area to hold.
- constraint Because the index fell 55% to 58% into late June and then more than doubled by early July, a single low reading is a weak basis for sizing a position.
- contradiction Traders who treat this low as a record pile of XRP are pricing an absolute overhang off a gauge scored against a falling baseline.
An 18-month low on CryptoQuant's gauge [1] is a statement about a ratio. The index compares the XRP sitting on Binance with the exchange's historical norm [2]. Crypto Briefing notes that even a moderate inflow can register as a dramatic shift when that baseline has been shrinking [7]. The baseline has been shrinking since late 2024 [6]. Working back from the reserve figure, Binance held about 3.25 billion XRP in November 2024 [1], so roughly 650 million tokens left the exchange over 18 months [2]. At $1.10 to $1.13 [8], that net outflow is worth about $715 million to $735 million [6].
Two statements in Crypto Briefing's own write-up pull against each other. It says "more XRP is available for trading on Binance right now than at any point since early 2025" [10], in the same piece that reports the reserve decline [6]. Both hold if the balance bottomed at some point in 2025 and has since climbed back, or if "available" means available relative to the average, or rather relative to an average that the outflow itself dragged down. The reports do not give the latest index value or a current token count.
If the returning tokens are sell supply, a price that has already shed roughly two-thirds from a peak above $3 [9] (at least 62% on the quoted range [5]) could break under $1.10. A second outcome is that the inflow is small in tokens, large only against the smaller base, and the index recovers the way it did in early July [5]. The third possibility is that holders park XRP on Binance and leave it there. The index counts balances, and it cannot separate a deposit placed to sell from one that will sit idle.
I think the bearish reading is right about direction. In late April and May the index sat at roughly 0.75 to 0.80, a range that has historically lined up with large holders pulling XRP off exchanges [3]. That withdrawal has reversed, with tokens flowing back at a pace Crypto Briefing calls notable against the reduced baseline [14]. They are going to the venue where the most XRP volume changes hands [13]. A holder who wanted only custody would have little reason to send them there.
The case against me is price. If XRP holds $1.10 to $1.13 while the index stays at its low, buyers are absorbing the float and the bearish read of the gauge is wrong [8].
What to watch
- The next Binance XRP reserve count: a balance back above about 3.25 billion tokens would make the glut real in token terms, while one near 2.6 billion would put most of the low reading down to a smaller baseline.
- SEC action, new ETF approvals or statements from Brad Garlinghouse, which Crypto Briefing lists as possible drivers of XRP liquidity and pricing.