The 10-year hits its highest level since 2007 as the Fed's meeting opens

The size of Brian Moynihan's revision is a swing of more than 60 percentage points of year-over-year fee growth in a single quarter ^[1]. He said Bank of America is "not as well positioned" as competitors that have "more activity", and that the bank will probably end up down "a bit more than that" ^[16]. Read against the market number he cited, that sentence guides the bank to lose share while the pool shrinks ^[4]. CNBC's Hugh Son and Ritika Shah wrote that the weak outlook could be a sign that the AI-driven advisory and trading boom on Wall Street is waning ^[17].

No similar reading was attached to the hoax exchange. Trump said the reason for the outpouring of AI concerns "is because the United States is leading, by a lot, every other country" ^[9]. He telephoned Jensen Huang while the Nvidia CEO was speaking at a summit to say the same thing again ^[10]. CNBC reported that some investors wrote off the growing chorus of concern as a political tactic to encourage government regulation ^[5]. Microsoft posted a provisional code of conduct that would place restrictions on its own future models ^[11], after Anthropic and OpenAI, whose models are incorporated into Copilot, called for a slowdown ^[12].

The yield reporting in the same note is inconsistent. It says stocks got a boost on Monday when the 10-year backed off from highs not seen in almost three years ^[6]. A clause later, the note restarted its ascent overnight and hit its highest level since 2007 ^[7]. A level last seen in 2007 is about 19 years back, not three, so the two descriptions of the same benchmark sit roughly 16 years apart ^[3]. Oil rose on Monday and was higher again this morning ^[21]. Zelenskyy said he is open to halting attacks on Russia's energy targets provided Moscow does the same ^[19]. Trump attributed the recent increase in diesel prices to the Russia-Ukraine war and not to the US conflict with Iran ^[20].

So the near-term portfolio variable is a discount rate that moved overnight while the equity argument stayed about AI ^[7]. But the countable, dated fact from the session is the fee guide, and it points the same way the AI worry does: down ^[13]. The counter-thesis is that deal fees are lumpy and the second-quarter comparison was flattering, which would make Monday a mood ^[14]. If Dealogic's third-quarter tally lands flat or better against the 10% decline Moynihan cited ^[15], and Bank of America takes back Monday's just-over-5% fall ^[18], the fee read was wrong. Only the rate print mattered.