Association members take 78% of the units at Seoul's redevelopment sites this year

Total units at the sites in the HUG data went from 8,129 in 2021 to 19,962 this year, two and a half times as many ^[10][1]. The slice offered to general buyers went from 2,401 to 4,361, or 1.8 times ^[10][2]. Subtract one from the other and units allocated to association members went from 5,728 to 15,601, 2.7 times ^[3]. Had this year's projects held 2021's 29.5% general share, subscribers would have been offered 5,889 units, 1,528 more than they got ^[4].

Kim Duk-rye, head of the housing research division at the Korea Housing Institute, said general sales are declining because of floor area ratio restrictions and that raising the allowable ratio is necessary to increase them ^[14]. The same report cites analysts arguing for easing those rules on private redevelopment ^[2].

The 52.9 million won per 3.3 square meters is a planned price submitted with a guarantee application, and actual prices are expected to rise once construction and financing costs are counted ^[7]. Per square meter that works out to 16.03 million won before any of that pass-through ^[7]. The move from 31.3 million won in 2021 is 21.6 million won, or 69% ^[4][5]. The top of the filed range sits well above the average. A Seocho site put in 101 million won per 3.3 square meters last November, and this year Seocho and Dongjak sites filed 95 million and 77 million ^[6].

An industry official cited in the report said demand for premium designs in the rebuilding market remains steady and that construction costs are being pushed up as a result ^[8]. The official also said new apartment prices are being pushed higher by reconstruction association members seeking to reduce the additional contributions they owe ^[9].

So a higher ratio could run three ways. The extra units and the extra revenue absorb construction cost and planned prices flatten, which is Kim's case ^[14]. Or the revenue goes into more premium design and the price per 3.3 square meters keeps climbing ^[8]. Or, the version I'd expect, general-sale counts rise and prices rise with them, because the presale price is what members use to hold down their own contributions and a ratio increase does not touch that ^[9]. It would be wrong if planned prices at sites granted higher ratios come in at or below this year's 52.9 million won ^[4].

The released data does not break out how many existing homes each project demolishes. So the 19,962 total and the 4,361 general-sale figure measure different things, and only the second is unambiguously stock a non-member can buy ^[9]. Jang said presale prices are rising rapidly while the share of general sales is falling. He said it is worth examining whether expanded supply through redevelopment actually leads to housing stability for people who do not own a home and are buying one to live in ^[15].