Waymo pays $38,000 for a Chinese-built robotaxi, then pays more than that again in tariffs

Waymo buys the Ojai stripped down from Geely's Zeekr for about $38,000 and then pays more than 125 percent in stacked tariffs to bring it into the United States, according to a Forbes account by a writer who spent a weekend riding in the vehicle ^[1][2][3]. It keeps buying in large numbers at that price ^[5], which tells you more about the margin the company assumes a robotaxi ride will carry than any autonomy milestone does.

The arithmetic is unkind. At more than 125 percent, duty on a $38,000 vehicle runs to at least $47,500, putting the landed cost at roughly $85,500 or more before Waymo installs its own sensors, computers and other hardware ^[4][5]. The stack starts with the Biden administration's 100 percent tariff on Chinese EVs and adds Trump trade-war era levies on top ^[3]. The tariff bill alone now exceeds the price of the car.

Forbes offers three reasons Waymo swallows it. The company had already sunk meaningful development work into the vehicle before the tariffs arrived ^[8]. It is still at the development stage, where vehicle cost is not a large factor at current volumes relative to the cost of building and scaling the business ^[9]. And the tariff is a US-only problem: other markets do not levy it, and China has become by far the value leader in automotive manufacturing ^[13].

The structural claim underneath is the one worth arguing about. In the 2030s, per the same account, vehicle cost becomes the largest single component of cost of goods sold on an at-scale robotaxi ride, but still only about a third of it ^[10]. For a mid-range newer private car, depreciation is 45 to 50 percent of cost per mile ^[11]. So doubling the vehicle price raises COGS by roughly a third rather than doubling it ^[12]. That is the whole permission slip. A business that treats a 125 percent duty on its biggest future input as a manageable third-order effect is a business priced on the assumption that the ride itself clears a wide gross margin.

The global logic is more convincing than the domestic logic. Forbes notes that on a recent trip to Latin America almost all of the writer's Uber rides were in Chinese cars, because drivers optimise for COGS ^[14], and argues the US will eventually be only a fraction of Waymo's market ^[15]. In many countries Waymo will face Baidu, Pony and WeRide, all of which will run on Chinese-built vehicles ^[16]. Brand is not the obstacle it would be in retail: buyers are nameplate-focused, but nobody cares who made their taxi, only whose service it is ^[20]. The writer's editor at Forbes has reported that Waymo has become the first ride in a Chinese car for many Americans who cannot easily buy one ^[21].

Tesla is playing the same cost game from the manufacturing side, having started lines for the two-seat Cybercab, planned without a steering wheel, before it has a working robotaxi ^[17]. The premise, traced to Larry Burns in 2011, is that removing controls, dashboard and rear seats saves more than the sensors, compute and motorised doors add ^[18]. Forbes reckons price competition is still some years off ^[19].

What to watch: whether Waymo's planned Hyundai Ioniq 5 vehicle shifts sourcing away from the tariff line ^[7]; whether landed Ojai cost stays below what the Jaguar i-Pace cost Waymo to build ^[6]; and what fares look like when free trial periods end, since the writer's rides were free and that changes how riders behave ^[22].