Investors mark Oracle down 4% over a power notice on a campus it says is on schedule

The odd part of the notice is who sent it. Under the Jupiter agreement, Reuters reported (as relayed by Cryptopolitan), Oracle is responsible for securing power and cannot terminate the lease ^[7]. Force majeure clauses are meant to release a party when circumstances beyond its control make performance impossible ^[24]. Oracle is citing one over an input the contract assigned to Oracle.

Blue Owl holds about $3 billion of equity, banks lent about $18 billion, and Oracle covers the debt costs ^[8]. That is six dollars of debt for each dollar of equity ^[2]. Blue Owl earns 9% before construction is finished and expects about 11% if the project goes well ^[9]. Applied to the $3 billion stake, those rates come to roughly $270 million a year during the build and $330 million at the higher rate ^[1]. Reuters noted that a long build can defer the higher return ^[9].

The sources disagree on what the notice does. Bloomberg reported that Oracle sent it to protect itself from payment obligations if Jupiter is delayed ^[12], and Morningstar said it was confident Oracle could protect its financial interests against the developer ^[13]. Crypto Briefing reported that Oracle remains obligated to keep paying debt costs, and that Oracle and Blue Owl both said the notice changes neither financial commitments nor timelines ^[14]. "Force-majeure notices are commonplace in developments of this scale and are often used to preserve contractual rights among project partners," Oracle vice president Michael Egbert said ^[6].

KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader put the risk in terms of timing. "Payments might be due on a chronological timeline, but the revenue generation is up to the whims of the complex real-world logistics," he said ^[19]. He also said: "Oracle is in the most tenuous of cash positions of all the major hyperscalers" ^[18]. Cryptopolitan, citing Oracle's latest SEC filing, reported $28.5 billion of capex in the first fiscal quarter and $125 billion of senior notes and other long-term borrowings, against $664 billion of remaining performance obligations ^[20]. S&P downgraded Oracle in July ^[21]. Morningstar said a delay could make it harder to keep an investment-grade rating ^[16].

The revenue at risk sits in fiscal 2028 and later. Morningstar estimates a delay would push back $25 billion or more of revenue ^[15], about 29% of its $86 billion OCI forecast for fiscal 2028 and 18% of the $136 billion it forecasts for fiscal 2029 ^[3]. William Blair expects little near-term impact because Jupiter contributes no revenue in fiscal 2027 ^[17].

The 4% drop ^[3] came on a delay Oracle denies. Morningstar put the early-trading fall at 5% ^[4]. CoreWeave fell 16% in November 2025 on an actual delivery delay ^[23], four times Oracle's move ^[4]. Morningstar kept its $220 fair value and said the market's reaction does not fully represent the downside of a real delay ^[22].

If the gas pipeline ^[10] and the air-quality and water permit challenges ^[11] are resolved and Jupiter opens in 2028 ^[10], the notice lapses and the selloff was a price paid for a legal filing. If a delay comes and the notice holds, payments slip and Blue Owl waits longer for its 11%. If a delay comes and the notice does not hold, Oracle keeps servicing debt on an idle campus while $25 billion of revenue waits. I think the market is pricing the third case, and the terms Reuters reported, with Oracle owning the power risk and barred from ending the lease, make it the likelier of the two bad outcomes. The view is wrong if Jupiter draws power on its 2028 date. It also rests on one campus: the pipeline is a local problem, and the sources do not show the same failure at Oracle's other Stargate sites.