OpenAI's near-$70 billion run rate tops Anthropic's July figure
OpenAI is nearing a $70 billion annualized run rate, with business revenue more than doubling since July, according to sources who spoke to Axios. Until the IPO filings show costs, buyers are comparing an unaudited monthly pace with an Anthropic figure from July.
The Engineer · Build desk
What happened
- OpenAI's annualized run rate rose more than 70% from the start of the third quarter, according to the people who briefed Axios.
- Anthropic's run rate was above $65 billion by late July, according to Bloomberg figures that Axios cited in August.
- At DevDay, OpenAI said 2.5 million businesses use its products and more than 35 million people use ChatGPT Work and Codex each week.
- Anthropic's prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, lists $518 billion in future cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations.
- OpenAI did not supply expense details alongside the new run-rate figure, Axios reported.
Why it matters
- What doesn't add up contradiction Runtime Wire reads the numbers as a reversal, but The Decoder says Anthropic may already match or exceed OpenAI, so which lab leads depends on how current the Anthropic figure is.
- What it limits constraint Contracted revenue, API use and other products are mixed into one pace, so a buyer cannot tell how much of OpenAI's new business spend is committed and how much could leave after the next price cut.
- Who's exposed exposure The one filing on record shows a frontier lab spending well over a dollar to earn one, so today's per-token prices could be repriced once public shareholders ask for margins.
- Who has to decide decision A team that signs a multi-year commitment with either lab now signs before OpenAI's public prospectus shows whether its growth holds up after compute costs, while shorter terms leave that choice open.
A run rate takes the current month of revenue and projects it over a full year [7]. At close to $70 billion, OpenAI is billing about $5.8 billion a month [19]. When revenue climbs this fast, that pace runs far ahead of booked revenue. Anthropic's late-July run rate is about 14 times the nearly $4.6 billion of revenue it reported for all of 2025 [15][22].
The Axios report uses both "annual recurring revenue" and "annualized revenue run rate" for OpenAI's figure, and it does not say how either was computed [5]. The numbers came from people familiar with the company's finances. They are not audited results [4].
Even so, the OpenAI numbers are consistent with each other. A rise of more than 70% that ends near $70 billion puts the start of the third quarter at about $41 billion or less [18]. In August, Bloomberg cited people familiar with the matter and reported more than $40 billion [12].
The Anthropic comparison is weaker. Runtime Wire calls OpenAI's numbers the September figures [3]. The Anthropic figure they are measured against dates from late July [23]. On paper the gap is at most about $5 billion, or 8% of Anthropic's July pace [27]. Runtime Wire says OpenAI is ahead only if the two estimates use comparable definitions and dates [24]. It also calls the figures a rapid reversal in the enterprise race [26]. But the Anthropic number in that comparison is a total run rate. The evidence supports a narrow lead on total pace. It does not show an enterprise lead.
OpenAI's own mix is changing on both the business and consumer sides. In March it said enterprise made up more than 40% of revenue and was on track to match consumer revenue by the end of 2026 [13]. Assume that share held into July. Business revenue doubling inside a total that grew 70% would then put enterprise near 47% [29]. OpenAI also added more consumer revenue in the third quarter than in all of 2025 [14].
The only cost figures on record for either lab come from Anthropic's prospectus. Reuters reviewed it and reported more than $8 billion of 2025 operating losses, excluding certain financing-related accounting charges [15]. That is about $1.74 or more of operating loss per dollar of revenue [20]. Its future obligations equal about eight years of revenue at its July run rate [21]. The Decoder says OpenAI's growth comes from enterprise sales and an aggressive price war against Claude and Chinese models, which OpenAI stepped up with GPT-6.1-Sol [28].
I think the OpenAI figures are good evidence of volume and weak evidence of a lasting lead. The first public document with OpenAI's margins will be its prospectus. OpenAI said in June it had filed confidentially for a U.S. IPO, according to the Associated Press [8]. Anthropic is preparing to list as early as November [9].
What to watch
- OpenAI's public prospectus, the first document that would show its margins and how much of its revenue is contracted.
- Anthropic's IPO, possibly as early as November, and any newer run rate showing whether it has passed OpenAI's September pace.
- Per-token price changes after GPT-6.1-Sol, which would show whether the price war The Decoder describes is still running.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption70
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
OpenAI is nearing a $70 billion annualized revenue run rate, according to sources familiar with the company's finances who spoke to Axios.
- [2]
OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate increased more than 70% from the start of the third quarter.
- [3]
Runtime Wire refers to the newly reported OpenAI numbers as the September figures.
- [4]
The figures are company-financial figures relayed by sources familiar with them, not audited results or a published breakdown of revenue by product.
- [5]
The Axios report uses both "annual recurring revenue" and "annualized revenue run rate" but does not provide a methodology or specify how much of the figure is contractual recurring revenue.
- [6]
The figures do not show how much of the increase comes from recurring contracts, API use or other products.
- [7]
The ARR metric projects current monthly revenue over a full year.
- [8]
OpenAI said in June it had confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO, according to The Associated Press.
- [9]
Anthropic is preparing an IPO as early as November.
- [10]
At DevDay OpenAI reported more than 1.2 billion weekly ChatGPT users, over 35 million weekly ChatGPT Work and Codex users, and 2.5 million businesses on OpenAI products.
- [11]
OpenAI's business-to-business revenue grew more than 100% from the start of the third quarter (more than doubled since July).
- [12]
In August, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI was generating more than $40 billion in annualized revenue, citing people familiar with the matter.
- [13]
In its March 31 funding announcement OpenAI said enterprise made up more than 40% of its revenue and was on track to reach parity with consumer revenue by the end of 2026.
- [14]
OpenAI added more revenue from consumers during the third quarter than it added during all of 2025.
- [15]
Anthropic's prospectus, reviewed by Reuters, reported nearly $4.6 billion in 2025 revenue and more than $8 billion in operating losses, excluding certain financing-related accounting charges.
- [16]
Anthropic's prospectus disclosed $518 billion in future cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations.
- [17]
OpenAI has not supplied expense details alongside the new run-rate figure, Axios reported.
- [18]
A rise of more than 70% ending near $70 billion implies a start-of-third-quarter run rate of about $41 billion or less.
- [19]
A near-$70 billion annualized run rate corresponds to about $5.8 billion of monthly revenue.
- [20]
Anthropic's 2025 operating loss was about $1.74 or more per dollar of revenue.
- [21]
Anthropic's $518 billion in future obligations equals about eight years of revenue at its late-July run rate.
- [22]
Anthropic's late-July run rate is about 14 times its 2025 revenue.
- [23]
Axios's August report on Anthropic, citing figures reported by Bloomberg, put Anthropic's run rate above $65 billion by late July.
- [24]
The new OpenAI figure would put it ahead of Anthropic on that measure if the estimates use comparable definitions and dates; neither comparison establishes which business is more profitable.
- [25]
Anthropic's rate reportedly passed $65 billion in July and may now match or exceed OpenAI's.
- [26]
Runtime Wire describes the figures as marking a rapid reversal in the enterprise race with Anthropic, which had recently reported a higher run rate.
- [27]
OpenAI's near-$70 billion pace exceeds Anthropic's above-$65 billion July figure by at most about $5 billion, or about 8% of Anthropic's figure.
- [28]
OpenAI's growth is driven by enterprise sales and an aggressive price war against Claude and Chinese models, a strategy it doubled down on with the just-launched GPT-6.1-Sol.
- [29]
If enterprise was 40% of OpenAI revenue in July, B2B doubling while the total grew 70% would put the enterprise share near 47%.
Get this ledger inside ChatGPT. Ask about any of our stories and the answer brings its figure, each claim’s verdict and the sources. Free, no account.
Sources
1 independent publisher whose own reporting we read for this story.
- runtimewire.comOpenAI's revenue run rate nears $70B as enterprise sales double
1 article · September 29, 2026
- the-decoder.comChatGPT now reaches 1.2 billion people every week, OpenAI says
2 articles · September 29, 2026
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