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Evercore's $230 billion Nvidia payout forecast implies 2027 free cash flow of $230 billion to $460 billion
Nvidia returned a record $26 billion to shareholders in the quarter to July and has pledged at least half its annual free cash flow. That makes Evercore ISI's 2027 projection a forecast of cash generation.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Nvidia allocated a record $26 billion to shareholders in its fiscal second quarter, which ended in July 2026.
- Stock repurchases accounted for about $20 billion of that total and dividends for about $6 billion.
- In May 2026 the company raised its quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 a share, a 25-fold increase.
- Evercore ISI analysts project Nvidia will return $115 billion to shareholders in calendar 2026 and $230 billion in 2027.
- Roughly $99 billion remains available under Nvidia's current stock repurchase authorization.
Compiled by The InvestorSomething wrong?How this is made
Why it matters
- constraint Because the payout is set as a share of free cash flow, cash generation has to roughly double before any allocation decision can reach $230 billion.
- decision The existing authorization is exhausted inside about five quarters at the current buyback rate, so the board has to vote a much larger ceiling before a $230 billion year is reachable.
- exposure Income-oriented institutions that buy the growth-and-income profile Evercore describes would be taking data-centre demand risk to collect the dividend.
- contradiction The projection is framed as overtaking Apple, but Evercore does not give Apple's current returns, so the crossover year is asserted from Nvidia's side of the ledger alone.
At the floor of its own commitment, Evercore ISI's 2027 number needs Nvidia to generate about $460 billion of free cash flow: returning at least 50% of the pool and handing over $230 billion of it only reconciles if the pool is twice that size [1][4][1]. Pay out every dollar and $230 billion suffices [1]. The forecast brackets 2027 free cash flow between $230 billion and roughly $460 billion, and the payout policy leaves the company free to land anywhere inside that range.
The 2026 half of the call is close to a continuation of the current pace. Four quarters at $26 billion is $104 billion, and Evercore's $115 billion is about 11% above that [2][2]. At 2.2 times the same pace [3], the 2027 figure comes out to exactly double the 2026 forecast [4].
Repurchases were $20 billion of the $26 billion, or 77% of the quarter's returns [3][5]. The $6 billion of dividends at 25 cents a share implies roughly 24 billion shares outstanding [6], and annualized the new rate is $1 a share against 4 cents before May [5][7].
At $20 billion a quarter, the $99 billion left under the authorization covers about five quarters [6][8]. Jim Cramer has argued publicly that Nvidia should quintuple the program to $500 billion [7], five times what is left [9].
Evercore's re-rating case leans on Apple's record: repurchases have been a pillar of the investment thesis since 2012, and the multiple expanded in the years after 2015 [9]. The analysts expect Nvidia's rising returns to do something similar, turning a growth stock into a growth-and-income stock and attracting a new class of institutional buyers [10]. John Ternus became Apple's chief executive on September 1, 2026, with Tim Cook moving to executive chairman [8].
I'd expect 2026 to land near $115 billion, since it needs 11% more than the pace Nvidia already ran in the July quarter [2]. The 2027 number forecasts chip demand. Against that, 50% is only a floor, and a higher ratio reaches $230 billion on less cash flow [4]. What the board has actually promised is the dividend, about $24 billion a year at 25 cents on roughly 24 billion shares [10].
What to watch
- A board vote to lift the repurchase ceiling above the remaining $99 billion, which would show whether a $230 billion year is planned or merely projected.
- The next dividend decision, and whether the committed annual cost rises above about $24 billion.
- Whether reported quarterly payouts stay near the 50% floor of free cash flow or run well above it.