Record diesel prices now carry the business case for Tesla's 500-mile Semi

A handful of fleet managers, all men, walked across the stage at Tesla's Nevada factory on Thursday. They were thanked for their orders while a pulsing techno beat played ^[2]. Next year these are the people who will answer for this truck's fuel and repair costs. Elon Musk, in a pre-taped video, pitched them something else. "It's going to be, really, a driver's truck. It's like a sports car in truck form," Musk said ^[6].

They bought as a pool, and the group said that pooling demand across many carriers let the truckmakers bring prices down ^[16]. Meena Bibra, a spokesperson for Smart Freight Centre, the nonprofit involved in the deal, told WIRED the group picked Tesla after "assessing price, performance, production capability, and service support" ^[14]. Carriers who are used to another brand, or whose routes suit a different truck, may buy electric trucks from Kenworth, Ride or Volvo instead ^[15].

Tesla also tells itself fleets want autonomy. Full Self-Driving (Supervised) is not available on the Semi, and Musk said only that it would arrive in "the very near future" ^[17]. Its predecessor, Enhanced Autopilot, was promised at the 2017 unveiling ^[17].

The cost case comes down to two large lines. The first is the purchase price. Electric semis can cost two to three times more upfront than diesel trucks ^[7]. The launch coverage does not include a price for the Semi or the per-truck figure the alliance paid, so no one outside the deal can complete a total-cost comparison. Washington will not help close the gap, because the administration and the GOP cut billions in federal EV support last year ^[9]. The second line is fuel. The truck "is going to make a ton of sense economically because the cost of electricity is much less than the cost of diesel, especially in these crazy times," Musk said ^[11]. A year ago, diesel cost a little over half of this month's price ^[4].

Range is easier to check. The long-range estimate is 70 miles above the top of the 155-to-430-mile band that competitors advertise ^[5][5]. The standard Semi's estimated 325 miles is 65 percent of the long-range figure ^[4][1]. Charging is harder. To hit program lead Dan Priestley's year-end target, Tesla has to open 28 more public megawatt sites in the months left ^[2].

Spread across 18 months, the alliance order works out to about 139 trucks a month ^[3]. According to WIRED, if those trucks reach customers they would nearly double the number of heavy-duty electric trucks on US roads today ^[13].

I'd put the decision on a 2x2. One axis is whether the lane starts or ends at a charger the fleet controls. The other is whether the payback still works at last year's diesel price. With your own charging and a case that works at last year's price, buy, and go through a pool for the lower price. With your own charging but a case that needs record diesel, order a few trucks and run them against your diesel units for a full year before adding more. With only public charging and a case that works either way, wait until the promised chargers are open on your lanes. With only public charging and a case that needs record diesel, keep the diesel fleet. Waiting has a cost, because the pooled pricing went to the carriers who signed this week ^[12][16].