Microsoft's not-yet-commenced leases grew $132.5 billion in a single quarter

Microsoft disclosed $329.1 billion of not-yet-commenced lease commitments at June 30, against $196.6 billion three months earlier ^[16]. The $132.5 billion increase ^[1] is about 3.2 times the $41 billion of capital expenditure including finance leases booked in the same quarter ^[15][2]. Microsoft said the leases are primarily data centers, that some are subject to contractual conditions being met, and that they commence between fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2033 with terms of one to 20 years ^[17].

The two capacity numbers disagree, and the confirmed one is the faster. Nadella said on the July 29 call that Microsoft added a gigawatt of capacity in the quarter and remains on track to roughly double overall capacity in two years ^[11]. That takes roughly 12 gigawatts to roughly 24, about 6 a year ^[22]. Bloomberg's 38 gigawatts by 2032 averages about 4.3 a year ^[21]. Put the two end to end and the back half of the decade thins. Twenty-four gigawatts in 2028 leaves 14 to add over about four years, roughly 3.5 a year ^[5], some 42 percent below the pace guided for the next two ^[6].

Divide the disclosed leases by the reported increment of 26 gigawatts and you get about $12.7 billion a gigawatt ^[3][4]. Treat that as a ceiling. The 38-gigawatt figure covers company-owned facilities as well as leased ones ^[6], and the lease disclosure covers property Microsoft describes as primarily, not only, data centers ^[17].

Fiscal 2026 capital expenditure was approximately $145 billion, and Amy Hood guided to more than $50 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 ^[19][20]. Four quarters at that rate is more than $200 billion, about 38 percent above fiscal 2026 ^[7]. Hood also said Microsoft will extend the estimated useful life of office and data center buildings from 15 years to 25, and that the change moves more future leases into operating lease classification ^[18]. She said demand continues to exceed available capacity and gave no estimate of when that changes ^[14].

None of the gigawatt figures come from Microsoft. The company has not confirmed 38 gigawatts ^[3], and Reuters said it did not respond to a request for comment ^[2]. Bloomberg's report puts no capital figure and no first-phase date on the plan ^[4]. Bloomberg's sources cautioned that the projections could change with customer demand, new technology and long construction timelines ^[9].

One reading is that 38 gigawatts is a planning floor set by what power interconnects can be secured six years out, and the true 2032 number is higher. Another is that the doubling guidance is a pull-forward, with fiscal 2026's signings landing early and the 2029 to 2032 tail correspondingly thin. I lean to the second, and the test arrives quarterly. Another hundred-billion-dollar increase in the not-yet-commenced balance while capex holds above $50 billion says the pipeline is still growing. A balance that flattens as commencements begin in fiscal 2027 says the June quarter was the peak of signing.