MediaTek puts its first 2nm phone chip against Qualcomm on a single AI speed claim

The margin MediaTek wants at the top of the handset market is shared with whoever fabricates the part, and TSMC's leverage is visible in TrendForce's quarter: 72.5 percent of the foundry market, up from 72.3 percent, on revenue 12 percent higher sequentially at 40.2 billion US dollars ^[13][14]. TrendForce expects combined top-ten foundry revenue to grow again this quarter from 53.49 billion, helped by price hikes ^[15]. Divide TSMC's quarter by that top-ten total and TSMC alone is about 75 percent of the group ^[1]; divide it by its own 72.5 percent share and the whole foundry market comes to roughly 55.4 billion ^[2]. Samsung, at 5.9 percent and falling, is about a twelfth of TSMC ^[16][4].

J.C. Hsu, MediaTek's corporate senior vice president, is selling into a rising price band. "As the overall market moves to higher prices, I believe there is still room for us to increase our share of the flagship segment," Hsu said ^[9]. Apple's foldable iPhone, announced last week, retails for as much as 3,199 US dollars in the highest-storage model ^[10]. The same report carries the counter-case from a neighbouring device category: MIC expects notebook shipments to fall 8 percent to 167.9 million units this year on weak demand, high component prices and supply constraints ^[17]. MIC's Edward Lin said shipments decline a further 4.7 percent to 160 million next year as higher retail prices weigh on consumption ^[18].

Nvidia's cheque was about nine-tenths of last month's convertible offering ^[3], and MediaTek's first AI accelerator for a major US cloud provider is due to enter mass production in the fourth quarter ^[11].

I think the flagship claim is currently thinner than the equity implies. MediaTek's market value passed Qualcomm's earlier this year ^[7], and what supports the premium push in this announcement is a stated effort to gain ground on Qualcomm ^[3] plus one prompt-processing improvement ^[4]. MediaTek said the first phones using the two chips launch soon and did not name the models ^[5]. Its customer list runs through Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo ^[6]. The version where Hsu is right is straightforward: a 2nm part costs the handset maker more and sells for more, and the band Apple set at 3,199 dollars gives it room ^[10]. The version where he is wrong looks like MIC's notebook forecast, where the cost gets to the shelf and units fall ^[17].

The test is margin. MediaTek says it is working with handset makers to limit the effect of higher component costs on consumers ^[8], and a 2nm die absorbed on MediaTek's own account comes out of MediaTek's margin.