Global tech's forward multiple fell from 29x to under 18x even as shares gained 34%

A multiple can fall for two reasons: the price drops, or the earnings estimate underneath it rises. Here the price rose. The buy call is reiterated after a 34% gain ^[2], against a forward price-to-earnings multiple that went from 29x in October 2025 to under 18x, according to Koyfin Charts data cited in the write-up ^[1], a fall of 37.9% ^[7]. Hold both numbers at once and the implied forward earnings estimate more than doubles: 1.34 divided by 18/29 is 2.16, up about 116% ^[8]. The article does not state the period over which the 34% gain was measured ^[13], so treat that doubling as the outer bound of what the two published figures can jointly support.

Part of the compression is the calendar. A forward multiple prices the next twelve months of estimates. On the 28.5% long-term EPS growth rate the write-up cites ^[3], moving that window forward by a year takes 29x to 22.6x with no revision to anything ^[9]. From 22.6x down to under 18x is a further 20% ^[10].

The rest of the explanation is what the fund holds. The write-up credits increased global diversification ^[3]. A global tech fund that adds non-US names trading on lower multiples lowers its blended forward multiple without any single holding getting cheaper. Whether under 18x is a discount on the same holdings or the average of different holdings depends on that split. I would want the split measured before calling high teens cheap.

In my view the compression is real and smaller than the 29x-to-18x figures suggest. What survives the calendar adjustment is a bet that 28.5% holds through the next round of estimate revisions. The write-up names the fund's concentrated portfolio and AI exposure as the risks, and calls technicals and upcoming seasonality supportive ^[4]. The author disclosed no stock, option or derivative position in any company mentioned and no plans to open one within 72 hours ^[6].